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I updated the Postseason Winning % for Manning, this loss definitely hurts his career, not as much because he lost but how he lost.

It has always been difficult to put any historical context on a singular season. There is no doubt in my mind that the best QB in the NFL right now is Peyton Manning. But being the best at a singular moment does not equate to being the best over a long period of time or of all time. In Manning’s case he definitely is in the argument, but when discussions of best of all time many get caught up in the moment or in this case the season.

With that said I decided to take a closer look at the last 6 great QBs, 3 of which are still playing. I decided to look at the last 6 because as we know the NFL is always evolving. Past greats like Otto Graham, Johnny Unitas, and even Terry Bradshaw played in a starkly different league than we see today. Absent were obstacles such as Free Agency and a Salary Cap. On the flip side today’s game also is more of a “passers league” with rules which promote offense.

So who are the last 6 great QBs? Let’s put some pictures in this post to find out…

Tom Brady

Peyton Manning

Brett Favre

John Elway

Dan Marino

Joe Montana

I think people will find it difficult to argue with this list. Some might point to Troy Aikman, but the guy had only once season of over 20 passing TDs, that’s right 1. And you can argue he didn’t need to because he had Emmitt Smith, but if you don’t show me you got it, then I can’t believe that you had it. Another potential omission was Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has 2 Super Bowl titles already but doesn’t have the career length or overall stats to be in the argument quite yet. Finally, there is Jim Kelly. He went to 4 straight Super Bowls, but he was always the bride’s maid and never the bride. He doesn’t have the incredible reputation or stats the Marino had either.

So after deciding on the last 6 great QBs I had to decide upon a way to compare them to each other. Now look I am not Football Outsiders here. I do not have DVOA ratings or “dark” statistics to compare theses guys. Don’t get me wrong I am a big fan of the Football Outsiders’ work; those who know me make fun of me all the time for buying their encyclopedia every year.

I tried to use statistics that can be compared regardless of years. Obviously longevity is a plus and it has to be weighed in at the end, but one cannot compare a total TD number for a guy who played 8 seasons and a guy who played 18. I went with TD/INT Ratio, Completion %, Regular Season Team Winning %, Postseason Team Winning %, and Difference in Winning % between the Postseason and Regular Season. At the end I will also include some important notes such as MVPs, and Super Bowl wins, etc…

***DISCLAIMER***

I chose the stats I chose with no prior knowledge of who would be the best. TD/INT Ratio determines an individuals propensity for the ultimate positive and negative plays. It is like Assist/Turnover ratio for a PG. Completion % determines accuracy. The stats on Win % shows the ultimate success of an individual and their team. That is why a person plays the sport: to win, and not just meaningless games, but Championship ones. I am sure I missed some nice stats and I am open to any suggestions.

TD/INT Ratio

1. Brady 2.27/1
2. Manning 2.02/1
3. Montana 1.96/1
4. Marino 1.67/1
5. Favre 1.57/1
6. Elway 1.33/1

I bet everyone is a little surprised by the fact that Elway was worse than Favre. Brady is pretty substantially ahead of the competition, but Manning is very high especially if you consider the little known fact that he threw 100 INTs his first 5 seasons, he has only thrown 81 in the past 7.

Completion %

1. Manning 64.8%
2. Brady 63.3%
3. Montana 63.2%
4. Favre 62%
5. Marino 59.4%
6. Elway 56.9%

Manning and Brady flip number 1 and 2 in this stat. Manning is 1.5% better than Brady which is not a huge number and is not as big a gap as the advantage Brady has in the TD/INT Ratio statistic. Elway takes up the rear once again, and you and I should seriously begin to question his credentials for being known as an elite QB all time.

Regular Season Team Winning %

1. Brady 77.6%
2. Montana 71.3%
3. Manning 68.2%
4. Elway 64.4%
5. Favre 63.5%
6. Marino 61.3%

No position is held more accountable for a teams win % than a QB. Obviously this stat alone does not tell you who is a better QB, but in a debate of greatness the ability to lead a top team is important, maybe the most important thing. Once again we see a trend of the same three names at the top and the same three names on the bottom.

Postseason Winning %

1. Brady 77.8%
2. Montana 69.6%
3. Elway 66.6%
4. Favre 54.1%
5. Manning 50%
6. Marino 44.4%

Manning finally takes a spill out of the top 3, while Elway makes a claim as to why he should be considered so great. This stat alone is nice, but takes a look at the next stat which will really flush out some things…

Difference in Regular Season and Postseason Winning %

1. Elway +2.24%
2. Brady +.18%
3. Montana -1.78%
4. Favre -6.99%
5. Marino -16.8%
6. Manning -18.2%

This folks is a huge stat in my book. The Postseason is where you make your money. Each of these 6 QBs has a winning % in the Regular season good enough on average to make the playoffs in any regular season. That in my books means their team is in the top 8 for teams in the league each season (or in other words a contender for a Super Bowl). When the Postseason rolls around the best of the best have to step it up. With such a small amount of games in the Postseason each loss counts for a lot more, especially when you consider if you lose one you do not get a chance to play the week after to make up for it.

Elway’s Win % difference is a huge number. With 4 of the 6 QBs seeing a drop in their team’s Win % his team actually improves in the Postseason. Brady’s feat might be more impressive when you consider that he already had the highest Regular Season win % and then he made his team even better (albeit by the slightest of margins). On the flip side for Brady you could argue his team was already great. But once again I would argue all of QBs’ teams were generally considered good to great, so it not like he is the only one playing with a solid squad behind him. A 61.3% Winning % in the regular season equates to 9.8 wins in a 16 game season. The 61.3% is the low Regular Season Win % (Marino).

Manning’s reputation takes the biggest hit here for me. His teams were good enough to win 68.2% of the time in the regular season (or an average of  11 wins per season) but then de-proved (you know the opposite of improved) by 18.2% come playoff time. One can also NOT argue that Manning lost his playoff games because he went up against a superior Patriots team. He has 9 career playoff loses, and only 2 were against the Pats. He even beat the Pats 1 time.

Now before I sum this all up lets also consider some key individual statistics or accomplishments for each player…

Peyton Manning – 4 MVPs, 1 Super Bowl (could have 2 after Sunday)

Tom Brady – Greatest Statistical Season by a QB Ever, 3-1 Super Bowl Record

Favre – Holds every career total record, the bad ones too

Montana – 4-0 Super Bowl Record, 11/0 TD/INT Ratio in the Super Bowl

Marino – Held every QB record before Favre, not the bad ones

Elway – Known as a great comeback QB, 2-3 Super Bowl Record

With those stats/facts said I have made the following assumptions and opinions…

Marino clearly had the worst team of any QB I have compared. But he seems to be more of a total stats guy than a win the game guy. I want to win, he can have his stats.

Elway is a definitive product of his last two seasons where his team got 7 of his 14 career playoff wins and his 2 Super Bowl victories. He finished on top and that has left him in a high spot for many analysts. But before his final 2 seasons he was a lot more Jim Kelly than he was Joe Montana.

Favre has great totals, but I think Tom Jackson said it best…

“That’s the thing about Brett Favre; he’s not afraid to throw an interception. That’s one of the things I most admire about him.”

Unfortunately I do not admire people who throw INTs and I would not want Favre leading my team when it counts. He is one of the toughest QBs ever though and I do give him credit for his longevity.

Those are the bottom 3. It is easy to see the stats and info I put out there and think that Favre, Elway and Marino are not on the Montana, Manning, and Brady level. But what can we take away from the Top 3?

First off Brady has had the greatest first 10 years of a career of any QB ever. He has only started for 8 of those 10 seasons, but with 3 Super Bowls Wins, another appearance, an MVP award, the best Win % Regular and Postseason, as well as the best TD/INT Ratio his first 10 seasons are the best ever.

On the other hand he does not yet have the longevity and coming off a major knee injury and having a down year in terms of team wins, it is unclear where his career will go from here. If he becomes a Dan Marino stat getter, while Manning continues his recent “Wins and Stats” excellence, the debate between the two will be over.

Manning struggled early in his career but is one of the best regular season QBs ever. His recent Postseason success is making many think highly of him now, but when you are comparing overall greatness the whole picture has to be taken into account. He has 12 seasons as a starter to Brady’s 8. So career longevity so far is in his favor. The battle between these 2 should be great to see for the next 5+ years hopefully. Even a Manning Super Bowl win this Sunday will not necessarily make him the greatest of all time yet, but he is definitely on that path. (Unfortunately Manning lost and definitely choked at the end of the game. BAD NEWS)

Montana had less seasons as a full season starter than Manning already has (only 11), but when it comes to a total package of performance and wins Montana is clearly the greatest QB of all time (well at least in this debate). His 4 Super Bowl wins and amazing 11 TDs and 0 INTs in those games prove how much of a big game player he was. His teams were definitely loaded, but he saw almost no drop off in the Postseason.

So with all that said I would rank the last 6 great QBs like this…

6. Marino

5. Favre

4. Elway

3. Manning

2. Brady

1. Montana

I admit I struggled with Manning and Brady and I am a huge homer. But Brady’s first 8 seasons are truly remarkable especially when you look at stats like TD/INT ratio and Winning % difference. Take that with Manning’s career postseason struggles and I went with Brady by a hair. I would love to get your opinions and please do not reference any QBs who came before the 1980s.

NFL Draft Prospect

Eric Berry Safety Tennessee

Will he be any good?

One of my favorite prospects, by all reports he is the next Ed Reed.

And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows

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