Before I begin the AFC Preview I want to rant on something:
Charles Woodson won DPOY over the weekend. I understand that he made “big plays” on defense. Having 3 defensive TDs and 9 INTs are great stats. But defense is more than those impact plays. Look at the two biggest games Woodson has played in the last 5 weeks. The Steelers and Cardinals absolutely destroyed Woodson and his amazing defense. Let’s take a look at which WR Woodson was “covering”…
Hines Ward: 7 receptions, 126 yards
Mike Wallace: 2 receptions, 79 yards, 2 TDs
Santonio Holmes: 3 receptions, 77 yards
Steve Breaston: 7 receptions, 125 Yards, 1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 6 receptions 82 yards, 2 TDs
Early Doucet: 6 receptions, 77 yards 2 TDs
Basically it didn’t matter who you pick, at a minimum he let up 77 yards, and I find it hard to believe he wasn’t the man primarily responsible for Larry Fitz last weekend.
An interesting stat to look at is from the site footballoutsiders.com, it ranks team defenses based on yards given up to #1 WRs per game. Number 1 in that stat is no surprise the Jets, allowing only 29.4 yards per game. The number 2 team in the league is the Chargers allowing 46 yards per game. The difference between the Jets and Chargers is 16.6 yards per game. If that same difference is applied to the Chargers it would encompass 12 more teams. What I mean by that is that 12 teams are within 16.6 yards of the Chargers defense. The gap between 1 and 2 is the equivalent to the gap between 2 and 14. Think about how great that difference is for the Jets. The Jets are far and ahead better than the next best team. And why is that?
Darrelle Revis
Revis has less INTs than Woodson, only 6 to Woodson’s 9. He only has 1 defensive TD, and Woodson has 3. But when it comes to the total package Revis is head and shoulders better than Woodson. I think I have only seen Revis get beat once really all season. Ted Ginn Jr. on a fly pattern (and that guy is as fast as they come in the league)…
Revis has shut down every top WR he has played this year. I just noted how Woodson had his two worst games in the two biggest games of the season. Revis is still going strong and the Jets defense as a team has allowed a league best 8 passing TDs. The Packers are 4th WORST in the league allowing 29 passing TDs. The only stat in Woodson’s favor is his “big plays” but I would take 3 less INTs and 2 less defensive TDs for Revis any day of the week.
Woodson had a strong season, but come on!. Revis week in a week out was unbelievable. People got distracted by Woodson’s “big plays” but they are missing Revis and just how great he was this season.
Let’s get right into the Jets game…
Jets at Chargers
This is an amazingly interesting match-up. The Chargers bolster one of the best passing attacks in the league. The Jets have the best passing defense in the league. The Chargers have struggled to stop run on defense, the Jets are the best running team in the league. If this was a puzzle the Jets would seem to have all the right pieces.
Offensively the Chargers have been totally inept when it comes to rushing the ball. They average 3.3 yards per carry which is worst in the league. LT should do less of this…
And try being a great RB again. All this guy seems to do is run his mouth and not perform these days. There was a time when he was the best RB in the league hands down. He has had a season of over 100 receptions. He once set a record for TDs in a season. But now he is a shell of his old self. It is kind of sad too because he almost seems in denial at this point.
Some people might point out his TD numbers this year…he was 5th in the league with 12 rushing TDs. Not bad? But if you read yesterday’s column you will know that he was second in the league with touches inside the 5 yard line (29 total). The Chargers were padding his stats. If you think I am kidding check this out…
LT 2009 Rushing TD Breakdown:
Total Rushing TDs: 12
Rushing TDs of 5 yards or less: 9
1 Yard Rushing TDs: 6
That’s right…9 of his 12 TDs came from within 5 yards, 6 of those 9 were 1 yard TD runs. His 3 TDs from outside 5 yards were for 6 yards, 10 yards, and 20 yards. That is unreal. This guy would be NOTHING without goal-line carries.
With that said the Chargers offense is all about Phillip Rivers and the tallest passing attack in the league…
Vincent Jackson 6’5”
Malcolm Floyd 6’5”
Kassim Osgood 6’5”
Antonio Gates 6’5”
Legedu Naanee 6’2”
I obviously expect Revis to take Jackson out of the game. But the Jets are going to have issues with Floyd and Gates, especially with Gates. I think back to the second meeting between the Jets and Pats. The Jets shut down Moss, but could not hold down Welker. Welker and Gates are far from the same looking player, but both excel at short “read” routes. Gates has played extremely well down the stretch, and will be a huge factor this game (he always is, but give me a break)
I want to mention how I think Rivers is the 3rd best QB in the league. Manning is playing the best. I would still take Brady (half hope/half bias/half history) number 2 and Pre-Injury Brady would be number 1. I think Rivers is next. He throws like a girl…
But he always seems to play big when it matters. No one can question his toughness either. He played with a torn MCL or something a couple years back. He is my third choice, and if Brady never recovers and you told me I had to pick a QB for the next decade (10 years), I would take him number 1 (Manning is 34 years old).
The Chargers defense misses Jamal Williams at DT; he was their “Vince Wilfork.” He was able to take up two blockers and to keep the MLBs free to make plays. A healthy Merriman helps their pass rush, but since the steroids and the Tila Tequila incident he has not been as good as he once was. Shaun Phillips on the other end is a good rush LB.
The Chargers secondary is hit or miss in general. They have players people like…Eric Weddle, Antonio Cromartie, Quentin Jammer, and Antoine Cason. All guys I like, at least in name. But who really knows what you will get from game to game with these guys. Sanchez only passed 15 times last week, so they might not be tested a lot, but they better be ready to not only make plays in the passing game, but tackle tough RBs.
Sanchez played an outstanding game last weekend, a true surprise for a rookie. He deserves all the credit. If I were him I would show Braylon Edwards the movie The Replacements. Edwards needs some stick-em…
The title says Ted Ginn, but Edwards can’t even catch warm up passes…
The Jets feature one of the best O-Lines in the league. Their rushing attack leads the NFL, and Shonn Greene looked really good last week. Thomas Jones also had a huge season. This run game has two bulldozers. Usually you see those “thunder and lightning” rushing attacks. This one just hits you in the mouth over and over again. Shonn Greene also brings to light a new spelling for the name Shonn. Options include, but are not limited to…
Shonn
Sean
Shawn
Chone
Shone
Xi’an
With that said I think I am going to call him Xi’an Greene from now on. Xi’an was the best RB in college football a season ago but fell to the third round. The Jets look to have found themselves a really good young player. Reports are the Jets might even like Xi’an more than Jones. Look for Xi’an to get a lot of carries this weekend.
Defensively the Jets are the best in the league, in a number of categories. They have to have a huge game this weekend to continue to cover for a limited offense. Rex Ryan has this defense hungry. This could be because he has been eating all their food (come on, I had to) or more likely because he likes to play a super aggressive style. I am interested to see if the Chargers O-Line can deal with multiple blitzes. Rivers is tough, we know that, let’s see him stand in their hit after hit.
Yesterday I ranked the Jets the last team “allowed” to win the Super Bowl. I like the Chargers team a lot but Norv Turner is such a choke artist as a coach. For some reason this has become a very difficult game to pick. On the other side Rex Ryan put forth a great coaching job last week. One of those put your players in the right position to make plays performances (underrated, a lot of coaches do not to that). But no team played better at theend the season than the Chargers, so I go with them. But if Xi’an runs wild the Jets could win this one.
Official Pick: Chargers
Top Match-up
Antonio Gates vs. Kerry Rhodes/Bart Scott
vs
Ravens at Colts
The Ravens last weekend took the injured horse out behind the shed and put it out of its misery. As a Pats fan part of me is thankful. This Ravens played close games against tough teams all season. They never seemed able to put it all together. Even against the Pats last weekend Joe Flacco’s play has to raise some question marks. Flacco looked awful last game. He went 4/10 for 34 yards and 1 INT. Lucky for him the Pats didn’t show up, and the Ravens have one of the best RBs in the league. Flacco is going to have to make a play at some point. The question is: can he?
Speaking of that rushing attack, how can you not like Ray Rice? He runs hard, he is quick, and he falls forward, and can take any play the distance. He is so low to the ground and does an unbelievable job of keeping his balance. When he gets hit he often puts one hand down and gets in like a 3-point stance and keeps himself up. Watch this play…start at the 1:20 mark…
The Ravens feature the right rushing attack to take at a fast Colts defense. With Rice, McGahee, and McClain they have a mix of power and speed. In Rice’s case he has both and that is the best way to attack the Colts.
The Ravens also feature one of the best tackle duos in the league, Jared Gaither and Michael Oher. Quick tangent on Oher…How does he feel having been portrayed in such a negative light in both print and film? All the credit in the world for coming from a horrible situation and making it, but if I were him I would want to keep some privacy in my life.
Nonetheless, these two will go head to head with the best pass rush duo in the league. Freeney and Mathis can beat anyone and if they were on separate teams they would both be doubled. Instead opponents have to pick their poison. The fact that they play together makes it increasingly impossible to keep them off your QB all game. Skip the first minute…
If Flacco is really hurt they are going to have to do a great job keeping him clean, or it could be a long day.
The Colts offense is going to enter this game as a true mystery. The Colts have not played a full game in 4 weeks. The Ravens defense is playing fast and hard. Last week Ray Lewis seemed to know Brady’s line calls, it will be interesting to see if he can best Manning as well. Manning throughout his career has excelled at changing his offenses play call to fit what the defense is giving him. In fact in Madden they even added him doing these ridiculous hand motions that annoy the shit out of me. I know the game wants to be real but when you play Manning he takes the entire play clock. Not a big deal in the real world, but most people play 5 minute quarters…just snap the damn ball already!
In their first match-up this season the Colts pulled out a tight 17-15 game. Manning had 2 INTs. Their offense never really got it going. Dallas Clark did have his ridiculous face catch…
Clark has been the best TE this season. He is more of a slot WR, sort of a bigger Wes Welker, except with two good knees (I hate my life). I do not think Lewis will be covering him exclusively, but even with all his greatness Lewis has definitely lost a step. Ed Reed will likely be paying close attention to Clark as well.
Do not expect Curtis Painter to make a cameo in this game, but Manning and the offense is going to have to play well. The Ravens seem to be getting healthy, and have always been able to stop the run. They have the best DT in the league in my opinion. Haloti Ngata is quick, agile, and HUGE. He can stop the run and get to the passer. Oh yeah, and he can drop into short coverage sometimes. Basically I would not want to see him in an alley late at night…
That means that Manning will have to pass, not that he is averse to such action. In fact the Colts run game has been relatively ineffective all season. The Colts biggest advantage will be on the outside with the WR/CB match-ups. No one can really cover Reggie Wayne, and Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have had outstanding seasons for young players. If the Ravens cannot come out on top with single coverage on Garcon and Collie then expect a big game by Manning.
I am really back and forth on this game. Before I wrote this blog I was going to take the Ravens. About 4 paragraphs ago I was going to take the Colts. Now I am undecided. Ravens are playing with momentum; the Colts have done nothing for weeks. The Colts have the best QB in the game and are at home; the Ravens have a QB who is hurt and playing as poorly as any QB left. This is where I invoke my I HATE THE COLTS clause …
Official Pick: Ravens
By the way…why would you ever listen to me on picks? I ranked the Jets and Colts the two teams not allowed to win it all, so I have them losing this week. Must be random.
Top Match-Up
Dallas Clark vs. Ray Lewis/Ed Reed
vs.
NFL Draft Prospect
Jonathan Dwyer RB Georgia Tech
Will he be any good?
He was the ACC player of the year as sophomore. He had another outstanding season last year as a junior. G-Tech runs the triple option which creates a lot of misdirection but it also is an offense that is basically all about the run. The other team knows its coming and they have not been able to stop him. He won’t go especially high in the draft, but expect him to be very good, maybe even great.
And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows
