Now that the Patriots are out of the Playoffs I have made my rankings for “Who can win the Super Bowl with out me hurting myself.” Here is a quick run down for how I stand…
- Dallas…I like Romo, Austin, Ware, etc.
- Saints…good for team and city
- Cardinals…one of those doesn’t hurt me situations
- Ravens…first AFC squad, love Ed Reed and respect Rice and Lewis
- Vikings…hate Favre but not a direct Pats rival
- Chargers…I despise LT
- Colts…Manning winning another Super Bowl could cause me serious damage
- Jets…I’d chose a slow painful death over this
Basically the top 5 are fine to me. The Chargers are painful, but Colts and Jets would be real issues for me. Thus my analysis/predictions will undoubtedly take these rankings into account; I can’t pick a team I don’t want to win, that would be unbiased.
Even though I did not necessarily come out and say it in every game preview last week, I went 2-2 last weekend. I lost on the Pats and the Bengals. I will add an official prediction to this week’s games. Once again I will start in the NFC…
Cardinals at Saints
If I gave you an over/under of 65.5 combined points what would you take in this game?
The Saints have played 4 games with a combined score of over 65 this season. The league has only seen 12 such games this regular season (13 if you include last Sunday’s). The Cardinals defense is likely to qualify as “suspect” after last weekend. Not as “suspect” as Woodson winning DPOY, but I will rant on that tomorrow. Here is a 7+ min clip of the Cards/Pack game from last Sunday. Normal highlights are a minute or two, but when two teams combine for 96 points it takes a little bit longer…
As for the Saints they have been the old Saints (that means bad) for a couple weeks now. Ever since their destruction of the artist formerly known as the New England Patriots the Saints have not been right. They won one of the great fluke games ever partly because of this play…
Then had a close game with a broken down Falcons team, and followed that up by 3 straight loses to end the season. The Saints started the season 13-0 and ended it 0-3. The end of the season makes me question one individual…Drew Brees. I mentioned it before on this site; Brees does not have a huge playoff history. Many clumped him in with Manning and Pre-Injury Brady, but he probably compares better to a healthy Matt Schaub. Yea I just said that. Both have put up big time stats, but not much substance. Remember Brees has a 1-2 career playoff record and in 8 seasons as a starter has only made the playoffs 3 times (this year being the third). Obviously he has more regular season “comebacks” than Schaub, and I think he is a lot better, but until now he basically has been a big time stats/fantasy guy.
Brees is reportedly working like a mad-man, waking up at 3am or something. I don’t know what to tell you, ESPN had Rachel Nichols report it so it has to be true. The bottom-line for the Saints offense is that it has been broken for a couple weeks now and needs Brees to step it up if they want to beat a dangerous Cards team.
In my opinion an X-Factor in this game for the Saints offense is Reggie Bush. I have ripped on him multiple times, but calling someone a bust is only relative to their draft position. A number 2 overall pick RB/WR needs to get 25 touches a game and be a game-changer. Bush has struggled to be an every down back. However he has immense value when he gets 10-15 touches in space with room to make people miss. Do not waste your time running him blindly into the line of scrimmage. But when he gets the ball in space or on misdirection plays he almost always makes a difference. Think plays like this…
Defensively the Saints thrive on having a lead and making the opponent come back. They are a scoring threat on any turnover. When they lost to the Cowboys Romo played a nearly flawless game and the Cowboys rushing attack gouged the Saints run defense. Beanie Wells has come on strong at the end of the season and has given the Cards offense a rushing attack they have lacked in recent years. The Cards have to be careful about fumbles though. Beanie Wells and his running mate Tim Hightower have a combined 9 fumbles this season. That is more than any other RB duo in the league. If the Cards turn the ball over the Saints are going to make plays out of it.
The Saints success will come down to one thing…Can they find their “mojo.” Early in the season they were flying high, but the Cowboys took away their “mojo” and since then they have not been right. Think of it like this…(Dr. Evil = Cowboys and Saints = Austin Powers)…
13 games into the season the Saints were undefeated and unbeatable at home. Since the Cowboys stole their “mojo” they have lost their last 2 home games (and last road game for that matter). The Superdome was supposedly one of the last few venues that created a home-field advantage. Lets see if Brees and the Saints can get back their “mojo” before it is too late…
Kurt Warner is coming off one of the greatest post-season performances of all time. He was 29 of 33 for 379 yards and 5 TDs. I would say if he does that again this weekend the Cards are guaranteed to win, but it took a fluke defensive TD for the Cards to win last Sunday’s game. Warner will need to keep up the top level performance if he wants to give the Cards a chance.
There is a chance that Anquan Boldin will be back this week. To be honest I do not think it makes too much of a difference. The Cards have a dangerous offense with or without him. Boldin helps but, they can win without him, and having him guarantees nothing.
The Cards defense has talked big about how they would rather face Brees than Rodgers. I have no clue why people talk trash like this before games, especially a defense that just allowed 45 points at home. Regardless, they will get their wish this weekend. People have talked of the irony of the 96 point game being decided by a defensive TD, I have to admit it was a little strange. If the Cards defense cannot get it together there is no way they can keep winning like this.
The Cards are most easily defined by this photo…
That is Brenda Warner, wife of Kurt Warner. On the right you see her new look, yup that’s the current Mrs. Warner. On the left you see Mrs. Warner from when Kurt first broke onto the scene, early 2000s. The Cards basically vacillate between the two looks. When they are playing well they are the hot new Mrs. Warner. When they are playing poorly they are the old gray Mrs. Warner. Which Mrs. Warner will show up this weekend?
My guess is that the Saints take this game. They are well rested with a city and following that wants/needs this win. I have questioned Brees but I expect a huge performance from him.
Official Pick: Saints
Top Match-Up:
Drew Brees vs. Kurt Warner (it could turn into a 7 on 7 passing drill competition)
vs.
Cowboys at Vikings
Talk about two teams that were going in opposite directions at the end of the season. The Vikes turned into an enigma while the Cowboys finally hit their stride after years of lackluster late season performances. Let me start by breaking down some stuff for the Vikes.
I am throwing out their win against the Giants in week 17. The Giants played almost as poorly as the Pats did last weekend. The Vikes had a fantastic start to the season but it came mostly against some mediocre teams. They fell apart late and have really left a lot of questions about just how good they are.
Adrian Peterson has now reached overrated status. He is 5th in the league in rushing, but only had a 4.4 yards per carry average, which ranked him 24th in the league for those who qualified (over 100 carries). He leads the league in fumbles with 6. And although led the league in rushing TDs he also had the most touches from inside the 5 yard line of any RB in the league. He had 30 attempts inside the 5, LT had 29, and then Thomas Jones and MJD are the next closest with 20 each. Meaning outside that washed up joke that is LT he had at least 50% more touches of any RB inside the 5 yard line.
Lets assume that touches inside the 5 yard line are directly correlated to rushing TDs, which it clearly is not, but it is definitely a huge factor. Then if MJD had the same amount of touches inside the 5 yard line as Peterson did he would have had 5 more TDs than Peterson. In other words Peterson has not been quite as effective as we thought.
The Vikes offense is basically determined by its passing attack. To his credit Favre has not had his December swoon, but there are still a lot of issues out there. Percy Harvin has not been healthy as of late and the Vikes clearly miss the added dimension he brings to the offense. The good news is that Sidney Rice has come on to have a monster season and Visante Shiancoe is one of the biggest TEs in the league both statistically and physically (children shield your eyes)…
The Vikes biggest issues will be their defense and their offensive line. The O-line I will discuss later, but their defense has struggled against good passing teams and Antoine Winfield has been burnt consistently since returning from a foot injury. This is him getting beat, and badly, in the Bears game a couple weeks back…
The Vikes will need to rely on Jared Allen and friends to get a lot of pressure on Tony Romo. Expect Allen to get Cowboys LT Flozell Adams to false start a couple times as well as commit some dumb penalties. The guy is a tank…
But he has also proven to be a dirty player…
Look for the Cowboys to keep up a balanced offense. Miles Austin has helped this entire passing game. Couple Austin with Romo’s strong play and this passing offense is good enough to beat you on any down. The offense has also gotten a real boost from playmaker Felix Jones. Check out Jones’ TD last weekend…
If this guy can get in space (ala a Reggie Bush) he is liable to go the distance.
On defense the Cowboys secondary has been playing outstanding football. The fact that DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer have been so effective getting to the QB is a huge plus. Their defense reminds me of the Giants D from 2007 (they won the Super Bowl). They have a pretty good secondary, but their dominating pass rush makes their entire defense better. The Vikes have struggled big time on the O-line and will truly have their hands full with these two this weekend. Bryant McKinnie, the Vikes mammoth LT, was benched a couple weeks back against Julius Peppers. Ware is going to be in Favre’s face all game.
From the department of redundancy department…a lot of drama has been made of the drama between Favre and Childress. I do not expect that to be much of a factor. I think the Cowboys are a better team and on a roll. I think the Vikes are going in the wrong direction and have too many holes.
Official Prediction: Cowboys
Top Match-up:
Cowboys D-Line vs Vikes O-Line
vs.
NFL Draft Prospect
Arrelious Benn WR Illinois
Will he be good?
This guy (copyright Jon Gruden) is 6’2” 200lbs and an absolute beast of an athlete. He did not put up big numbers at Illinois, but they struggled to find consistency at the QB position. He is going to put up great numbers at the combine (think 40 time, bench press, and other measurables), but I have been giving you guys people I love so far on this site, and I think Benn will be a bust. He is an ultimate boom/bust pick. I question his route running, hands, and commitment. I would stay away from him until the 2nd round at least.
And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows
