For better or worse the Patriots season has now ended. In a backwards way if the Owners and Players do not agree to a new CBA this might be a good thing for the Pats (I will touch on this briefly later). The game however was not a good thing for the Pats or anyone who wants to believe in them in the long run. There has to be a lot of changes for this team to compete next year. I am going to just throw a quick run down of some important topics for the offseason, then I will discuss the CBA situation and why the Pats losing might be a good thing…
Coaching Staff
The Pats need to get new coaches. If you read this site then you know I despise Quarterback Coach and Offensive Play Caller Bill O’Brien. He cannot call the plays. He has no sense of the moment, does not allow for any sense of continuity. What kind of offense would you describe the Pats this year? Inconsistent comes to mind. That has not been the case since Brady came on board until now. O’Brien has to go. If I have to watch him call plays next year it is going to be worse for my health than if I spent an afternoon with the Monkey from the movie Outbreak.
WR Core
Randy Moss is NOT the problem on offense, but he is not as good as he once was. He is clearly getting older and might have lost a step. He did not have a 100 yard game since week 10 this season. He is on the last year of his contract next season. Hopefully he finds the motivation this off-season and comes back with a hellacious year. The guy has put in the work before…
Outside Moss the WR core needs an infusion of talent. Edleman looks like he can “replace” Welker to some extent but he does not look like an outside WR (he is more of a slot man).
There are options at WR with potential free agents…Antonio Bryant, Derrick Mason, and Kevin Walter are all free agents who might not require the Pats to break the bank. I love Welker, but do not get your hopes up that he will be healthy to play early next season.
The league is filled with young TEs who have talent, yet they all are on teams not named the Patriots. We might have to target yet another TE in the draft. Jermaine Gresham from Oklahoma comes to mind. I would be interested to see how far he falls. I will profile him today at the end of the column.
RB Direction
Make a RB decision. Maroney’s run in New England might be over. The RB by committee can work if you have a passing attack that sets records. People forget though that the Pats won their Super Bowls with top level rushing attacks, and when they switched to the passing offense they have not been able to win Super Bowls. It might not always be pretty, but heavy doses of Clock Killing Corey Dillon were a formula for success…
Defensive Overhaul
There is only one LB who should stay and that is Mayo. He needs to improve no doubt, but he has some skills and hopefully his injury was the reason he seemed to stagnate in his development this year. Guyton is a bit player who cannot shed a blocker to make a play in the running game. Our OLBs cannot rush the passer unless we are facing the Bills. Banta-Cain had a good season for what his skills are but he is a situational player at best. Adalius Thomas is going to be shown the door especially after all the drama he had this season. We need someone who puts fear into the offense on passing downs. A top notch pass rusher can cover up a questionable secondary.
And guess what…our secondary is terrible. Meriweather is so bad when it matters it makes me sick. Somehow he was named to the Pro-Bowl as a replacement. That just echoes why the Pro-Bowl is a meaningless event. Wilhite is one of the worst corners I have seen in this league. Bodden will likely leave in Free Agency. Springs was inactive for weeks mid-season for some unknown reason.
I am hoping that Butler develops and unlike the other guys I named. He has shown a lot of promise. Also Chung should be instilled into the defense so we can at least see what we got in him. He cannot be worse at the Safety position than the triumvirate of Meriweather/Sanders/McGowan.
Finally the team needs to make long term decisions along the defensive line. Will Wilfork be back? Should we retain Jarvis Green? Will Ron Brace develop into a viable DT or has his poor performance this season shown that he is a 2nd Round bust? Maybe it will be easier to find a true DE who can rush the passer than it will be to find an OLB. Will that mean a switch to the 4-3?
Tom Brady
This issue is not something that can be addressed in the off-season by signing a new free agent or changing who calls the offensive plays. Brady had an off-year. He was recovering from an unbelievably debilitating injury, but he did not play well this season no matter how you slice it or what excuses you make. I do not know if Brady works as hard as he used to, and I will not assume he does or doesn’t. He might work harder. Whatever it is, Brady has to get back to the old Brady.
CBA Situation
Currently this is the “situation” if the Owners and the Players do not come to a new CBA (taken from Pat Kirwan’s article on NFL.com)…
The Final 8 Rule…
The rule will restrict the final eight teams in the playoffs from signing free agents. The final four teams shall not be permitted to negotiate and sign any unrestricted free agent to a player contract except for players who acquired their status by being cut or were on the final four team when their contract expired. Playoff teams five thru eight get a break to sign one player with a salary of $4,925,000 or more and any number of players with a first-year salary of no more than $3,275,000 and an annual increase of no more than 30 percent in the following years.
There is a mechanism to permit the final eight teams to sign an unrestricted free agent for each one of their own unrestricted free agents who sign with another club as long as they don’t spend more than what their own lost player received from his new club.
If the Pats had won yesterday they would have been restricted in who they were allowed to sign. By not being a member of the “Final 8” they will be able to sign more potential free agents.That is how they might have actually “won” yesterday. There are other weird rules that will be instituted restricting who is available, and furthermore the Pats have usually been very specific over who they spend money on. Samuel, Vinatieri, Vrabel, and Seymour were all either let go or traded due to money (as well as other issues).
Final Note
Are we overreacting to this weekends loss? Part of me says yes. The team was 10-6 and won the AFC East. But I watched every game and saw an incredibly flawed team. No team is perfect, but the Pats rode an easy home schedule and a lot of breaks to win 10 games. In the end we were not good enough and it showed.
People get blindsided by the fantastic record breaking season that the Pats had in 2007 and forget what got us to that point. No doubt Brady, if healthy, is a top QB not only in the league but of all time. But it was a balanced offense, with a hard-nosed tough defense that won us 3 Super Bowls in 4 years. Yes, the defensive rules have changed in support of a more open offensive style, but balance still pays dividends. Can the Pats put together a defense suited to play by these rules and still dominate over multiple seasons? How many new players do we have to bring in? Can the Pats find the balance on offense? There are a ton of questions out there, more than someone would expect for a 10-6 Divisional Champ which has Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. At least this season’s disappointment is over.
NFL Draft Prospect
Jermaine Gresham TE Oklahoma
Will he be good?
He came back this season even though he would have been the first TE taken in last years draft. An injury before the season even started ended his college career. He decided to declare for the Draft this year even with no playing time logged this season. If healthy he is a beast and an absolute force from the TE position. He is 6’6” 260lbs and has great hands. His blocking leaves something to be desired, but I think he is going to be a stud in this league if he can overcome his injury. The injury could be a blessing in disguise for teams picking late, because he should drop lower than his talent dictates.
Back with Playoff previews later this week. Expect the NFC on Wednesday, and the AFC on Thursday.
And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows
