While the NFC was wasting time with their 6 playoff teams already decided last weekend the AFC saw some big games, huge hits, key injuries, and the two teams who controlled their own destiny take control. I always find it interesting when someone “controls” their own destiny. Destiny is defined as a predetermined course of events. If someone controlled it they would know they were all set already. Furthermore if you controlled your own destiny why play hard at all? Ok never mind, stupid definitional arguments.
Looking at this weekends four match-ups I actually think that we have the two most intriguing match-ups in the AFC. I know the Cowboys/Eagles game has big game draw and the Cards/Packers game features two teams that could win it all but I think the AFC match-ups hold all the intrigue.
The Bengals have had more heartache this season than any team in a long time.
The Jets used a league best defense and rushing attack to cover up a rookie QB.
The Pats have caused me more pain than Ike Taylor caused Pat White…
The Ravens have the scariest man in the league, the best safety, and a big play threat.
I think the match-ups themselves also lead to great intrigue. All four teams are flawed, and yet many will argue that all four have a chance to make a run. The Bengals/Jets game matches two teams no one thought would be here, while the Pats/Ravens game matches two teams who probably expected more. Let’s break down each game more thoroughly than yesterdays post because I care more about the AFC…
Jets at Bengals
Why them first? So I can spend 5 pages on the Pats/Ravens and keep you reading. By you I mean all 5 of my readers. So let’s get to it…
The Bengals have been a mess lately. They defied the odds earlier this season when they were able to beat the Ravens and the Steelers twice. How unlikely is that to happen? I can’t really tell you because I am not wasting my time looking at the each season for those two teams but keep in mind the Browns and the Bengals are the only two teams in the last 10 or so years to be able to win 4 regular season games against the Steelers and Ravens, and do you really think they’ve done it before?
Carson Palmer is not Carson Palmer anymore folks and that has to scare Bengals fans. He had his lowest completion % of his career (not counting last season’s 4 games, he missed the rest due to injury). He also had his lowest TD and Yard totals since his rookie season. Not good signs. And we all remember the last time he was in the playoffs…
Honestly that has no relevance as to how he will play this postseason. But after being carted off the field after that hit he was unable to complete another pass the entire game.
The Bengals have relied on Cedric Benson rushing the ball, and stout defense to win games. They win their games close and don’t seem to have any blowouts. They have one of the best CB duos in the league with Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph. Both are former 1st round picks who are now playing up to par.
The Bengals have been on an emotional roller-coaster all season. From the passing of Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer’s wife to Chris Henry’s fatal accident, this team has had to overcome more than just simple on field injuries. Many have pegged them the worst of the 12 play-off teams, but remember they played arguably the best team in the league (the Chargers) three weeks ago and came within a FG of winning the game on the road.
The Jets are all about the number 1 right now. Number 1 defense in the league. Number 1 rushing game in the league. Number 1 CB in the league. But what might be most important is they have a QB who is playing his 1st playoff game. SanCHEZ has not exactly taken the world by storm this season. He had a play sheet wrist band that resembled this…
Red meant play it safe, Yellow meant he could be more open, and Green meant he could take a risk. This reminds me of an episode of The Office where Michael Scott color codes his rolodex. Dwight steals the rolodex and goes to make a sale with one of the clients. After thinking he has done well Dwight looks down at a business card from the rolodex which has notes on it, one note says his current client has a gay son. This interaction ensues…
Dwight: Thank you, Mr. Schofield, for your time—much appreciated. Oh, (looks down to read the business card notes) and tell me, how’s your gay son?
Mr. Scofield: Excuse me? (awkward silence)
(cut to Michael’s talking head)
Michael: I color code all my info. I wrote “gay son” in green. Green means go. So I know to go ahead and shut up about it. Orange means, ‘orange you glad you didn’t bring it up?’ Most colors mean ‘don’t say it.’
I like Michael’s color coding better, but if I am a Jets fan I have to be scared to death with a QB who his own coach not only doesn’t trust but is incredibly public about his lack of trust. Sure, he is a rookie, but at least try to give off an aura of confidence.
If the Jets win this game it will be because of defense and a tough running game. The Jets and Bengals rank in the top 5 in rushing attempts per game. The Jets are number 1 by 82 attempts over the Panthers. Expect a smash mouth game. Revis will be matched-up with Ochocinco again this week. Ochocinco no showed last week battle, and I would not expect him to get the better of this match-up Saturday.
This game should be tight. Part of me screams ROOKIE QB ON THE ROAD. Part of me notes the Bengals have played some very mediocre ball as of late. I said the AFC has intriguing match-ups not necessarily the games I want to watch (I want to watch the Pats game, but this one looks painful). When I make a pick in a game I don’t let my biases play a part. With that said I HATE the Jets and that is the only reason I am picking against them.
Top Match-up:
Jet’s O-Line vs. Bengals Run Defense
vs.
Ravens at Patriots
Their week 4 game came down to the wire. Ray Lewis after the game had a fit over a penalty in that game, and former Patriot great Rodney Harrison called out Tom Brady on NBC…
But penalties are nothing new to the Ravens. The Ravens are one of the most penalized teams in the league, and always seem to have a penalty at the wrong time. If they cannot correct that problem they will not last long in the playoffs.
Their only consistent weapon on offense this season has been the electric Ray Rice. I mentioned him in the ‘Things We Love” posts. He is a dynamic back who is incredibly dangerous out of the backfield. That has to be great news for the Patriots whose Swiss Cheese defense has struggled to stop anyone with talent nearly all season.
The Ravens have struggled passing the ball though this season. Flacco seems to have taken a step back, or as I like to say he is being asked to do more, and isn’t quite capable of it yet. His playoff stats last year when the Ravens were able to make it to the AFC Championship game were abysmal. He completed 44% of his passes for 437 total yards, had 1 TD, and 3 INTS (all of which came in the Championship game). If he plays like that Sunday the Ravens are going to need a herculean effort from its defense.
Lucky for the Ravens that is not out of the realm of possibilities. Ray Lewis is not as fast as he once was, but like the famous saying goes…I’m not as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I’ll ever be. This game is going to be cold, and expect some bone jarring hits. He has been in the league since 1996 and is still playing at a Pro-Bowl level. He even has one of the great plays this season when he jumped the gap in week 2 against the Chargers…
That is a 4th and 2, the biggest play of the game. He jumps the gap, play over, game over. I have been critical of Ray a lot, but I know how good he is. The guy is dangerous and keeps this defense emotionally charged. Behind Ray is the best safety in the game Ed Reed. I mention him a lot on this site and he is just an absolutely outstanding player. Watch this play, he breaks on the ball before the SNAP!…
He can take any turnover back to the house and change the game. Reed has been struggling with injuries as of late, but if he plays, injured or not, he is dangerous. On a final defensive note it will be interesting if Terrell Suggs and Jarrett Johnson can get pressure on Brady. Last game a strip sack was returned for a TD by the Ravens. That could be the difference in this game
Ok…hold your breath…time to talk Patriots…
All I can think about this week has been this play…
Welker was crying after the play. He knew it. It was painful to watch. It was sad to watch. I never felt so much for a player. Here is a quick snip from Patriots.com page on him…
Wesley Welker was born the son of Leland and Shelley Welker on May 1, 1981 in Oklahoma City, Okla … Attended Heritage Hall High School in Oklahoma City, where he played both running back and defensive back … Was named the Oklahoma Player of the Year as a senior by numerous media outlets … Was an all-state choice as a running back … In his career, rushed for 3,235 yards and 53 touchdowns on 495 attempts, while catching 174 passes for 2,551 yards and 27 scores … Also snared 22 interceptions and returned seven punts for touchdowns … Scored a total of 90 touchdowns in his prep career … Also served as a placekicker and hit a 57-yard field goal
Let me expand further…
He got few college scholarships, went to Texas Tech and received the nickname “The Natural.” He once again put up numbers across the board but would go undrafted. He then got cut by the Chargers in 2004. He almost got cut by the Dolphins in 2006, but had a great year. The Pats traded a 2nd and 7th round pick for him and people thought we were crazy. Since that time he has had 346 receptions. He made the Pro-Bowl this year. It is so sad to see a guy like this get hurt. He is a 5’9”, 190lbs slot WR who gets hit by LBs, Safeties, and CBs all game. He always gets up. Well he always got up. I really hope he can heal from this injury.
Ok, end of my emotional rant. It is understood that the Pats are going to miss Welker. Tony Massarotti argued in his blog that “If the Patriots were so reliant on him that his absence will now destroy their Super Bowl hopes – however slim they were – then they probably weren’t championship material to begin with… In a sport like football, a 5-foot-9-inch, 190-pound slot receiver should not be the difference between ultimate success and failure.” I actually could not disagree more.
Who decides which single positions dictate differences? I agree that our chances were not great. But why does the fact he is 5’9” or 190lbs matter when it comes to his relevance? Why does it matter that he was a slot receiver? Think about it like this (I excluded QBs because that is obvious), could the following teams win it all without the following player…
Jets: Darrell Revis
Bengals: Chad Ochocinco
Packers: Charles Woodson
Cardinals: Larry Fitzgerald
Eagles: Desean Jackson
Cowboys: Jason Witten
Colts: Dallas Clark
Chargers: Antonio Gates
Vikings: Sidney Rice
Saints: Darren Sharper
In each case, some stronger than others, you would say that in all likelihood if that team lost that player they would not win the SuperBowl. Not to say they couldn’t, but it is unlikely. I listed CBs, WRs, TEs, and a Safety. Sometimes one guy can be the difference, even if he is not the QB. Even if he is 5’9″ and 190lbs.
Does that mean that I think the loss of Welker means the end of the Pats? I can’t tell you it looks good. I brought up the argument about Welker because I think he deserves to be considered among the most important players in the game. I do agree when Massarotti says this team has other problems. The loss of Welker likely puts them over the edge, especially in a game of inches (Copyright Al Pacino, Any Given Sunday). Being the huge homer I am I will still believe in this team and hope they can find a way. Last point on Welker…I believe if he was healthy, regardless of how flawed this team has been they could have legitimately won the SuperBowl, now I am not sure.
And let me tell you this team is incredibly flawed. They have no third WR, now no second WR. Call me stupid but I am not sold on Julian Edleman yet. I would love for him to be great, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The play calling has been abysmal all season. Defensively our LBs struggle in coverage and against fast RBs. And our pass defense reminds me of the following exchange from one of the great movies of all time Armageddon…
Oscar: Ok, Mr. Truman, let’s say that we actually do land on this. What’s it gonna be like up there?
Truman: 200 degrees in the sunlight, minus 200 in the shade, canyons of razor-sharp rock, unpredictable gravitational conditions, unexpected eruptions, things like that.
Oscar: Okay, so the scariest environment imaginable. Thanks. That’s all you gotta say, scariest environment imaginable.
But imagine the quote as something like this…
Oscar: Ok, Mr. Truman, let’s say that we actually have to pass defend. What’s it our pass defense like?
Truman: Incredibly inept on obvious passing downs, completely unable to rush the passer, defensive backs with “predator” hair who could be legally blind, unpredictable safety play, lots of big plays allowed, things like that.
Oscar: Okay, so the worst pass defense imaginable. Thanks. That’s all you gotta say, worst pass defense imaginable.
I love that movie. Trust me it’s a keeper. I even get a little teary eyed at parts. Not going to lie. But, the Patriots…I have just ripped them apart. So why hold onto the slim belief. Well this week is easy to talk myself into. Home playoff game, against an equally flawed Ravens team, that you already beat, no matter if it happened on a dropped pass or not, with Tom Brady at QB, and Bill Belichick at Head Coach. Yeah I am being a too biased, but the easiest way for a team to get motivated is to have no one believe in them, and right now no one believes in the Pats. I would say I am jinxing them, but I pick them to win and cover every week. Can’t in my heart go any other way.
Top Match-up:
Ray Rice vs. Jerod Mayo
vs.
Alright that is all for the preview…now it is time for today’s Draft Prospect…
Joe Haden CB Florida
Will he be good?
I absolutely love this guy. If I could put him in our secondary today I would. I think he is going to be a stud at the next level.
Enjoy this weekend’s playoffs…
And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows
