So here we are. One more game to play and the good news is that it is not the Pro-Bowl. About a month ago both the Saints and Colts were undefeated at 13-0 and everyone was talking about how good a match-up they would be. Since that time these teams have a combined record of 5-5. Kind of funny when you think about like that, however the only thing that matters is they are 4-0 thus far in the Postseason.
Two of my favorite words are prophetic and pathetic. As it applies to this blog I have been a little bit of both. I have been quite prophetic with some key players, x-factors, and match-ups. On the flip side I have been absolutely pathetic when it comes to predictions on this blog. In all actuality I did predict the Championship Games correctly, but I did not blog that week so I am sure you guys won’t believe me. With that said there is only one prediction to make this week and unfortunately the game features one of my most hated teams. I have said it before, if a game features a team I love or hate it makes it increasingly difficult to make an unbiased prediction. Nonetheless I will break down the entire game look prophetic then I will make a prediction and end up pathetic.
Saints vs. Colts
It does not get any bigger than this. There are a ton of storylines involved with this game and I am not just talking about the Tim Tebow “Pro-Life” Commercial. Which obviously Tim supports…
But back to the game…We have a match-up of maybe the best two QBs in the league. I think Manning is the best, but Brees has been more hit or miss lately. Brees did play well against the Cardinals but even JaMarcuss Russell could have (just kidding). You had to know a J-Russ joke was coming I mean it’s the last game of the year can’t hold anything back now (Copyright Waterboy).
Brees had a solid stat line against the Vikes last in the NFC Champ game…
17/31 197 Yards 3 TDs
Yet, if you watched the game you could see that something was off with Brees especially late in the game. This has been a trend for the Saints since their 13th win. Brees has seemed to fade a little bit and the Saints began to lose. They lost to the Cowboys at home, and then lost a shocker to the Bucs at home as well. Playing backups in week 17 they lost their 3rd straight. In the playoffs they took it to the Cards early, but against the Vikes there is no doubt they lucked into a win. Watch the Brett Favre INT one more time for effect…
The Vikes were trying so hard to give this game away that I was certain they would have deferred had they won the coin toss before OT.
The Super Bowl is Drew Brees’ chance to truly cement his legacy as one of the elite QBs of this era. On this blog I have been more than critical of Brees’ credentials. Many have said he is one of the great QBs out there, but his team’s records never reflected that. He was too hit or miss, and he had ZERO big games under his belt. Needless to say this is a big game.
I talked at length in Wednesday’s post “The Great QB Debate” about Manning and his credentials. I have to admit he is playing on a whole other level recently. If he knows what you are doing, you already lost. His first pass to Collie on this clip is just perfect…
I am not going any further about Manning and what this game means for him; check out Wednesday’s blog for my feelings on QBs. I will take this time to debunk something that has annoyed me…
Archie Manning is often considered a very good QB, who was always saddled with a terrible team. Now I admit I only have stats to look at and I never saw him in person. I will even say that I believe his teams were horrible but get this…In his 10 seasons as the main starter for the Saints Archie had only 2 seasons with more TDs than INTs, and some years it was not even close. For his career he had 125 TDs and 173 INTs. Lastly, Archie started 11 games after he left the Saints. He was 0-11 in those games. Archie to me symbolizes the kind of guy who was beloved by the media so he is remembered a lot better than he should be. My buddy Vater sarcastically said it best…
“But he was running for his life!”
Face it he just wasn’t very good.
I saw in some newspapers that they were breaking down the Saints vs. Colts comparing WRs to WRs and O-Lines to O-lines, but doesn’t that seem just stupid. I am not picking the better team, I am picking the team I think will win. I can gurantee that Drew Brees will not be defending Peyton Manning and that Maques Colston will not line up across from Reggie Wayne. Match-ups should compare units who compete against each other. If Reggie Bush has a big game it does not mean that Joseph Addai cannot. So with that rant out of the way let’s break down match-ups that are head to head…
First up the Saints Passing game vs. the Colts Pass Defense: By now the news of Freeney is clogging all media outlets. He says he will play but I highly doubt his effectiveness. He has a torn ligament in his ankle and he will be hit down constantly during the game. This loss not only hurts the pass rush, but also the secondary.
It is no secret that a good pass rush helps out your secondary; one good pass rushing end also helps out another. Robert Mathis will now be left to get a lot more double teams than he might have faced had Freeney been 100%. I have a feeling if Freeney plays and gets 1 sack people might get up in arms and act like he played well. But Sacks are the absolute statistic of something a lot more important…pressure. I would rather have a player who gets constant pressure and no sacks than a guy who gets a sack or 2 but is non-existent the rest of the game.
The Colts secondary has played well this season but the Saints offense has sooooooo many options to pass to…Colston, Meachem, Henderson, Shockey, Moore, and Bush just to name a few. Any of the guys I listed could make a big play. Well except for Shockey who will undoubtedly be injured by halftime. The Colts have an inexperienced secondary, but have played well this season. Look for the Saints to attack the rookie corners of Lacey and Powers (if Powers plays). Brees likes to throw a back shoulder pass which most CBs are not ready for.
Reggie Bush is a tough match-up for nearly every team and although he had an off game 2 weeks ago you know he is going to be pumped up to make a big play. The Colts defense is fast though so Bush is going to have to get North/South and not waste time juking too much back and forth. It will be interesting if Gary Brackett is matched-up with Bush. Brackett is an undersized MLB but plays with incredible leverage and instincts. Look at this headshot of him, there is no way he looks like a football player…
The Saints have been one of the top rushing teams in the league this season. That is a factor of a strong passing attack and a good stable of runners. Pierre Thomas when healthy is a very effective back and usually finds the endzone at least once a game. Bush is always a factor to run the ball, and they also have former Denver Broncos RB Mike Bell who will get carries. At the goal-line the Saints might even turn to Lionel Hamilton for inexplicable reasons. In fact this is the best picture of him I could find on the google machine…
The Colts got a little bigger at the DT position this offseason and have been effective against the run for two reasons in my opinion. First is their aforementioned team speed, and second is their offense. Yup, you read right, the Colts Offense helps their defense against the run. Most would think that if a team was scared of Manning and the Colts offense they would try to keep them off the field with a sustained rushing attack. That is great in theory, but just look at the Dolphins game from earlier this season. The Colts possessed the ball for only 15 of the 60 minutes in the game. But they were able to win. The Colts can score lightning quick, so if you are going to hold the ball you better get in the end zone, and more often than not that means passing and NO FIELD GOALS. If the Saints get in the redzone and kick FGs they will lose the game.
The Colts statistically have the worst rushing attack in the league (at least by some metrics). The Saints have had their struggles against certain rushing attacks but this match-up should not be a huge factor in this game. Although I would like to note that Joseph Addai is involved in 27% of all the Colts plays (passing or rushing) so they do use their running back a lot in the offense. When Addai does get the ball he tends to use the “jump cut” a lot so look for that.
The Saints have a solid but not spectacular front 7. They should be effective against the Colts rushing attack because the Colts don’t really run the ball, and the game is likely to be high scoring (more passing).
The biggest match-up for the Saints will be their pass defense vs. Peyton Manning. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie look like big time players. This could be all because of Peyton Manning, or maybe they are actually pretty good. Garcon looked like a top-flight outside threat against the Jets. And Collie reminded me of the days when Brandon Stokely was the slot man for the Colts (Manning set a record for passing TDs that season, only to be broken by Brady BOO YEAH!). The Saints simply do not have the cover corners to contend with these two. Especially when you consider how pre-occupied the Saints defense is going to be with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.
I have heard that Saints Corner Jabari Greer rated out as the second best cover corner in the league behind Darrelle Revis. Sunday will be a true test for him then. I know there is a lot of talk of how great a season Darren Sharper is having, and rightfully so, but he is not a cover Safety. Expect Roman Harper on Clark, and I would also expect Clark to get it going again. He is just too good a route runner. Clark has been dropping a couple passes lately, and I tend to question his ability at the biggest of moments. He is better than the criminal Marvin Harrison was in big games. Harrison’s playoff stats are some of the worst all time for a WR with his regular season credentials. But do not be surprised if Clark drops a key pass at an inopportune time.
One thing to note is that Peyton Manning had 16 INTs in the regular season. That was 7th worst in the league. Now yes he did have a lot more attempts than the guys above him, well except Jay Cutler who just threw another INT. But Manning does make mistakes, and I don’t just mean bad commercials.
The Saints have made it clear their mission in the playoffs has been to get hits on the QB. They had this killer block on Warner…
And then they hit Favre non-stop last week…
If the Saints can get Manning of his moorings (yea I just threw a hockey reference into an NFL Blog) then they could be in business, but that is obviously a lot easier said than done. Manning seems to be ultra aware and knows what everyone is doing. Listen to him yell at Donald Brown for missing his assignment, and then going down before he can get hit…
Special teams could be an interesting match-up. Reggie Bush is hit or miss and cannot get too ambitious like he did in the NFC Champ game. He needs to take advantage of opportunities but also be smart. Turnovers are huge in this game. Courtney Roby has also been a hit or miss returner. He has hit some big kick returns, but other times he is below par at getting the Saints a good starting position. The Colts are far from spectacular in any form of Special Teams. If the Saints can make a big play here it could change the game.
The final so called match-up will be the coaches. Sean Payton is widely considered a coaching genius. He is able to match-up LBs on Reggie Bush, he must be a genius. I actually think he is a great coach, and think the way he brought in a lot of players with a winning past (mostly ex-Patriots) he helped change the culture. On the other side Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell might seem like he has no emotions on the sideline, but he is actually extremely well spoken, at least from what I have seen. However, when it comes down to it the Colts are basically coached by Peyton Manning. So it’ll be Peyton vs. Payton.
So now who will win? Obviously I desperately want the Colts to lose, probably more than I want the Saints to win. So basically anything but the Colts. However, I want to be realistic here. The Colts have won every game they wanted to win this season. The Saints will come in with a ton of emotion and will have the nobody believed in us card. I am going to pick the Colts though with the hope I am wrong, I am cheering for the Saints. Here is to hoping I am pathetic and not prophetic.
Official Pick: Colts
NFL Draft Prospect
Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma
Will he be any good?
I am sure he will be drafted high, top 5 maybe, but he has had shoulder problems. He was great behind a superior O-Line, but when he faced some pressure he had some injuries. I do not think he will be successful.
Enjoy the big game…
And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows
















































