So here we are. One more game to play and the good news is that it is not the Pro-Bowl. About a month ago both the Saints and Colts were undefeated at 13-0 and everyone was talking about how good a match-up they would be. Since that time these teams have a combined record of 5-5. Kind of funny when you think about like that, however the only thing that matters is they are 4-0 thus far in the Postseason.

Two of my favorite words are prophetic and pathetic. As it applies to this blog I have been a little bit of both. I have been quite prophetic with some key players, x-factors, and match-ups. On the flip side I have been absolutely pathetic when it comes to predictions on this blog. In all actuality I did predict the Championship Games correctly, but I did not blog that week so I am sure you guys won’t believe me. With that said there is only one prediction to make this week and unfortunately the game features one of my most hated teams. I have said it before, if a game features a team I love or hate it makes it increasingly difficult to make an unbiased prediction. Nonetheless I will break down the entire game look prophetic then I will make a prediction and end up pathetic.

Saints vs. Colts

It does not get any bigger than this. There are a ton of storylines involved with this game and I am not just talking about the Tim Tebow “Pro-Life” Commercial. Which obviously Tim supports…

But back to the game…We have a match-up of maybe the best two QBs in the league. I think Manning is the best, but Brees has been more hit or miss lately.  Brees did play well against the Cardinals but even JaMarcuss Russell could have (just kidding). You had to  know a J-Russ joke was coming I mean it’s the last game of the year can’t hold anything back now (Copyright Waterboy).

Brees had a solid stat line against the Vikes last in the NFC Champ game…

17/31 197 Yards 3 TDs

Yet, if you watched the game you could see that something was off with Brees especially late in the game. This has been a trend for the Saints since their 13th win. Brees has seemed to fade a little bit and the Saints began to lose. They lost to the Cowboys at home, and then lost a shocker to the Bucs at home as well. Playing backups in week 17 they lost their 3rd straight. In the playoffs they took it to the Cards early, but against the Vikes there is no doubt they lucked into a win. Watch the Brett Favre INT one more time for effect…

The Vikes were trying so hard to give this game away that I was certain they would have deferred had they won the coin toss before OT.

The Super Bowl is Drew Brees’ chance to truly cement his legacy as one of the elite QBs of this era. On this blog I have been more than critical of Brees’ credentials. Many have said he is one of the great QBs out there, but his team’s records never reflected that. He was too hit or miss, and he had ZERO big games under his belt. Needless to say this is a big game.

I talked at length in Wednesday’s post “The Great QB Debate” about Manning and his credentials. I have to admit he is playing on a whole other level recently. If he knows what you are doing, you already lost. His first pass to Collie on this clip is just perfect…

I am not going any further about Manning and what this game means for him; check out Wednesday’s blog for my feelings on QBs. I will take this time to debunk something that has annoyed me…

Archie Manning is often considered a very good QB, who was always saddled with a terrible team. Now I admit I only have stats to look at and I never saw him in person. I will even say that I believe his teams were horrible but get this…In his 10 seasons as the main starter for the Saints Archie had only 2 seasons with more TDs than INTs, and some years it was not even close. For his career he had 125 TDs and 173 INTs. Lastly, Archie started 11 games after he left the Saints. He was 0-11 in those games. Archie to me symbolizes the kind of guy who was beloved by the media so he is remembered a lot better than he should be. My buddy Vater sarcastically said it best…

“But he was running for his life!”

Face it he just wasn’t very good.

I saw in some newspapers that they were breaking down the Saints vs. Colts comparing WRs to WRs and O-Lines to O-lines, but doesn’t that seem just stupid. I am not picking the better team, I am picking the team I think will win. I can gurantee that Drew Brees will not be defending Peyton Manning and that Maques Colston will not line up across from Reggie Wayne. Match-ups should compare units who compete against each other. If Reggie Bush has a big game it does not mean that Joseph Addai cannot. So with that rant out of the way let’s break down match-ups that are head to head…

First up the Saints Passing game vs. the Colts Pass Defense: By now the news of Freeney is clogging all media outlets. He says he will play but I highly doubt his effectiveness. He has a torn ligament in his ankle and he will be hit down constantly during the game. This loss not only hurts the pass rush, but also the secondary.

It is no secret that a good pass rush helps out your secondary; one good pass rushing end also helps out another. Robert Mathis will now be left to get a lot more double teams than he might have faced had Freeney been 100%. I have a feeling if Freeney plays and gets 1 sack people might get up in arms and act like he played well. But Sacks are the absolute statistic of something a lot more important…pressure. I would rather have a player who gets constant pressure and no sacks than a guy who gets a sack or 2 but is non-existent the rest of the game.

The Colts secondary has played well this season but the Saints offense has sooooooo many options to pass to…Colston, Meachem, Henderson, Shockey, Moore, and Bush just to name a few. Any of the guys I listed could make a big play. Well except for Shockey who will undoubtedly be injured by halftime. The Colts have an inexperienced secondary, but have played well this season. Look for the Saints to attack the rookie corners of Lacey and Powers (if Powers plays). Brees likes to throw a back shoulder pass which most CBs are not ready for.

Reggie Bush is a tough match-up for nearly every team and although he had an off game 2 weeks ago you know he is going to be pumped up to make a big play. The Colts defense is fast though so Bush is going to have to get North/South and not waste time juking too much back and forth. It will be interesting if Gary Brackett is matched-up with Bush. Brackett is an undersized MLB but plays with incredible leverage and instincts. Look at this headshot of him, there is no way he looks like a football player…

The Saints have been one of the top rushing teams in the league this season. That is a factor of a strong passing attack and a good stable of runners. Pierre Thomas when healthy is a very effective back and usually finds the endzone at least once a game. Bush is always a factor to run the ball, and they also have former Denver Broncos RB Mike Bell who will get carries. At the goal-line the Saints might even turn to Lionel Hamilton for inexplicable reasons. In fact this is the best picture of him I could find on the google machine…

The Colts got a little bigger at the DT position this offseason and have been effective against the run for two reasons in my opinion. First is their aforementioned team speed, and second is their offense. Yup, you read right, the Colts Offense helps their defense against the run. Most would think that if a team was scared of Manning and the Colts offense they would try to keep them off the field with a sustained rushing attack. That is great in theory, but just look at the Dolphins game from earlier this season. The Colts possessed the ball for only 15 of the 60 minutes in the game. But they were able to win. The Colts can score lightning quick, so if you are going to hold the ball you better get in the end zone, and more often than not that means passing and NO FIELD GOALS. If the Saints get in the redzone and kick FGs they will lose the game.

The Colts statistically have the worst rushing attack in the league (at least by some metrics). The Saints have had their struggles against certain rushing attacks but this match-up should not be a huge factor in this game. Although I would like to note that Joseph Addai is involved in 27% of all the Colts plays (passing or rushing) so they do use their running back a lot in the offense. When Addai does get the ball he tends to use the “jump cut” a lot so look for that.

The Saints have a solid but not spectacular front 7. They should be effective against the Colts rushing attack because the Colts don’t really run the ball, and the game is likely to be high scoring (more passing).

The biggest match-up for the Saints will be their pass defense vs. Peyton Manning. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie look like big time players. This could be all because of Peyton Manning, or maybe they are actually pretty good. Garcon looked like a top-flight outside threat against the Jets. And Collie reminded me of the days when Brandon Stokely was the slot man for the Colts (Manning set a record for passing TDs that season, only to be broken by Brady BOO YEAH!). The Saints simply do not have the cover corners to contend with these two. Especially when you consider how pre-occupied the Saints defense is going to be with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.

I have heard that Saints Corner Jabari Greer rated out as the second best cover corner in the league behind Darrelle Revis. Sunday will be a true test for him then. I know there is a lot of talk of how great a season Darren Sharper is having, and rightfully so, but he is not a cover Safety. Expect Roman Harper on Clark, and I would also expect Clark to get it going again. He is just too good a route runner. Clark has been dropping a couple passes lately, and I tend to question his ability at the biggest of moments. He is better than the criminal Marvin Harrison was in big games. Harrison’s playoff stats are some of the worst all time for a WR with his regular season credentials. But do not be surprised if Clark drops a key pass at an inopportune time.

One thing to note is that Peyton Manning had 16 INTs in the regular season. That was 7th worst in the league. Now yes he did have a lot more attempts than the guys above him, well except Jay Cutler who just threw another INT. But Manning does make mistakes, and I don’t just mean bad commercials.

The Saints have made it clear their mission in the playoffs has been to get hits on the QB. They had this killer block on Warner…

And then they hit Favre non-stop last week…

If the Saints can get Manning of his moorings (yea I just threw a hockey reference into an NFL Blog) then they could be in business, but that is obviously a lot easier said than done. Manning seems to be ultra aware and knows what everyone is doing. Listen to him yell at Donald Brown for missing his assignment, and then going down before he can get hit…

Special teams could be an interesting match-up. Reggie Bush is hit or miss and cannot get too ambitious like he did in the NFC Champ game. He needs to take advantage of opportunities but also be smart. Turnovers are huge in this game. Courtney Roby has also been a hit or miss returner. He has hit some big kick returns, but other times he is below par at getting the Saints a good starting position. The Colts are far from spectacular in any form of Special Teams. If the Saints can make a big play here it could change the game.

The final so called match-up will be the coaches. Sean Payton is widely considered a coaching genius. He is able to match-up LBs on Reggie Bush, he must be a genius. I actually think he is a great coach, and think the way he brought in a lot of players with a winning past (mostly ex-Patriots) he helped change the culture. On the other side Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell might seem like he has no emotions on the sideline, but he is actually extremely well spoken, at least from what I have seen. However, when it comes down to it the Colts are basically coached by Peyton Manning. So it’ll be Peyton vs. Payton.

So now who will win? Obviously I desperately want the Colts to lose, probably more than I want the Saints to win. So basically anything but the Colts. However, I want to be realistic here. The Colts have won every game they wanted to win this season. The Saints will come in with a ton of emotion and will have the nobody believed in us card. I am going to pick the Colts though with the hope I am wrong, I am cheering for the Saints. Here is to hoping I am pathetic and not prophetic.

Official Pick: Colts

NFL Draft Prospect

Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma

Will he be any good?

I am sure he will be drafted high, top 5 maybe, but he has had shoulder problems. He was great behind a superior O-Line, but when he faced some pressure he had some injuries. I do not think he will be successful.

Enjoy the big game…

And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows

I updated the Postseason Winning % for Manning, this loss definitely hurts his career, not as much because he lost but how he lost.

It has always been difficult to put any historical context on a singular season. There is no doubt in my mind that the best QB in the NFL right now is Peyton Manning. But being the best at a singular moment does not equate to being the best over a long period of time or of all time. In Manning’s case he definitely is in the argument, but when discussions of best of all time many get caught up in the moment or in this case the season.

With that said I decided to take a closer look at the last 6 great QBs, 3 of which are still playing. I decided to look at the last 6 because as we know the NFL is always evolving. Past greats like Otto Graham, Johnny Unitas, and even Terry Bradshaw played in a starkly different league than we see today. Absent were obstacles such as Free Agency and a Salary Cap. On the flip side today’s game also is more of a “passers league” with rules which promote offense.

So who are the last 6 great QBs? Let’s put some pictures in this post to find out…

Tom Brady

Peyton Manning

Brett Favre

John Elway

Dan Marino

Joe Montana

I think people will find it difficult to argue with this list. Some might point to Troy Aikman, but the guy had only once season of over 20 passing TDs, that’s right 1. And you can argue he didn’t need to because he had Emmitt Smith, but if you don’t show me you got it, then I can’t believe that you had it. Another potential omission was Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has 2 Super Bowl titles already but doesn’t have the career length or overall stats to be in the argument quite yet. Finally, there is Jim Kelly. He went to 4 straight Super Bowls, but he was always the bride’s maid and never the bride. He doesn’t have the incredible reputation or stats the Marino had either.

So after deciding on the last 6 great QBs I had to decide upon a way to compare them to each other. Now look I am not Football Outsiders here. I do not have DVOA ratings or “dark” statistics to compare theses guys. Don’t get me wrong I am a big fan of the Football Outsiders’ work; those who know me make fun of me all the time for buying their encyclopedia every year.

I tried to use statistics that can be compared regardless of years. Obviously longevity is a plus and it has to be weighed in at the end, but one cannot compare a total TD number for a guy who played 8 seasons and a guy who played 18. I went with TD/INT Ratio, Completion %, Regular Season Team Winning %, Postseason Team Winning %, and Difference in Winning % between the Postseason and Regular Season. At the end I will also include some important notes such as MVPs, and Super Bowl wins, etc…

***DISCLAIMER***

I chose the stats I chose with no prior knowledge of who would be the best. TD/INT Ratio determines an individuals propensity for the ultimate positive and negative plays. It is like Assist/Turnover ratio for a PG. Completion % determines accuracy. The stats on Win % shows the ultimate success of an individual and their team. That is why a person plays the sport: to win, and not just meaningless games, but Championship ones. I am sure I missed some nice stats and I am open to any suggestions.

TD/INT Ratio

1. Brady 2.27/1
2. Manning 2.02/1
3. Montana 1.96/1
4. Marino 1.67/1
5. Favre 1.57/1
6. Elway 1.33/1

I bet everyone is a little surprised by the fact that Elway was worse than Favre. Brady is pretty substantially ahead of the competition, but Manning is very high especially if you consider the little known fact that he threw 100 INTs his first 5 seasons, he has only thrown 81 in the past 7.

Completion %

1. Manning 64.8%
2. Brady 63.3%
3. Montana 63.2%
4. Favre 62%
5. Marino 59.4%
6. Elway 56.9%

Manning and Brady flip number 1 and 2 in this stat. Manning is 1.5% better than Brady which is not a huge number and is not as big a gap as the advantage Brady has in the TD/INT Ratio statistic. Elway takes up the rear once again, and you and I should seriously begin to question his credentials for being known as an elite QB all time.

Regular Season Team Winning %

1. Brady 77.6%
2. Montana 71.3%
3. Manning 68.2%
4. Elway 64.4%
5. Favre 63.5%
6. Marino 61.3%

No position is held more accountable for a teams win % than a QB. Obviously this stat alone does not tell you who is a better QB, but in a debate of greatness the ability to lead a top team is important, maybe the most important thing. Once again we see a trend of the same three names at the top and the same three names on the bottom.

Postseason Winning %

1. Brady 77.8%
2. Montana 69.6%
3. Elway 66.6%
4. Favre 54.1%
5. Manning 50%
6. Marino 44.4%

Manning finally takes a spill out of the top 3, while Elway makes a claim as to why he should be considered so great. This stat alone is nice, but takes a look at the next stat which will really flush out some things…

Difference in Regular Season and Postseason Winning %

1. Elway +2.24%
2. Brady +.18%
3. Montana -1.78%
4. Favre -6.99%
5. Marino -16.8%
6. Manning -18.2%

This folks is a huge stat in my book. The Postseason is where you make your money. Each of these 6 QBs has a winning % in the Regular season good enough on average to make the playoffs in any regular season. That in my books means their team is in the top 8 for teams in the league each season (or in other words a contender for a Super Bowl). When the Postseason rolls around the best of the best have to step it up. With such a small amount of games in the Postseason each loss counts for a lot more, especially when you consider if you lose one you do not get a chance to play the week after to make up for it.

Elway’s Win % difference is a huge number. With 4 of the 6 QBs seeing a drop in their team’s Win % his team actually improves in the Postseason. Brady’s feat might be more impressive when you consider that he already had the highest Regular Season win % and then he made his team even better (albeit by the slightest of margins). On the flip side for Brady you could argue his team was already great. But once again I would argue all of QBs’ teams were generally considered good to great, so it not like he is the only one playing with a solid squad behind him. A 61.3% Winning % in the regular season equates to 9.8 wins in a 16 game season. The 61.3% is the low Regular Season Win % (Marino).

Manning’s reputation takes the biggest hit here for me. His teams were good enough to win 68.2% of the time in the regular season (or an average of  11 wins per season) but then de-proved (you know the opposite of improved) by 18.2% come playoff time. One can also NOT argue that Manning lost his playoff games because he went up against a superior Patriots team. He has 9 career playoff loses, and only 2 were against the Pats. He even beat the Pats 1 time.

Now before I sum this all up lets also consider some key individual statistics or accomplishments for each player…

Peyton Manning – 4 MVPs, 1 Super Bowl (could have 2 after Sunday)

Tom Brady – Greatest Statistical Season by a QB Ever, 3-1 Super Bowl Record

Favre – Holds every career total record, the bad ones too

Montana – 4-0 Super Bowl Record, 11/0 TD/INT Ratio in the Super Bowl

Marino – Held every QB record before Favre, not the bad ones

Elway – Known as a great comeback QB, 2-3 Super Bowl Record

With those stats/facts said I have made the following assumptions and opinions…

Marino clearly had the worst team of any QB I have compared. But he seems to be more of a total stats guy than a win the game guy. I want to win, he can have his stats.

Elway is a definitive product of his last two seasons where his team got 7 of his 14 career playoff wins and his 2 Super Bowl victories. He finished on top and that has left him in a high spot for many analysts. But before his final 2 seasons he was a lot more Jim Kelly than he was Joe Montana.

Favre has great totals, but I think Tom Jackson said it best…

“That’s the thing about Brett Favre; he’s not afraid to throw an interception. That’s one of the things I most admire about him.”

Unfortunately I do not admire people who throw INTs and I would not want Favre leading my team when it counts. He is one of the toughest QBs ever though and I do give him credit for his longevity.

Those are the bottom 3. It is easy to see the stats and info I put out there and think that Favre, Elway and Marino are not on the Montana, Manning, and Brady level. But what can we take away from the Top 3?

First off Brady has had the greatest first 10 years of a career of any QB ever. He has only started for 8 of those 10 seasons, but with 3 Super Bowls Wins, another appearance, an MVP award, the best Win % Regular and Postseason, as well as the best TD/INT Ratio his first 10 seasons are the best ever.

On the other hand he does not yet have the longevity and coming off a major knee injury and having a down year in terms of team wins, it is unclear where his career will go from here. If he becomes a Dan Marino stat getter, while Manning continues his recent “Wins and Stats” excellence, the debate between the two will be over.

Manning struggled early in his career but is one of the best regular season QBs ever. His recent Postseason success is making many think highly of him now, but when you are comparing overall greatness the whole picture has to be taken into account. He has 12 seasons as a starter to Brady’s 8. So career longevity so far is in his favor. The battle between these 2 should be great to see for the next 5+ years hopefully. Even a Manning Super Bowl win this Sunday will not necessarily make him the greatest of all time yet, but he is definitely on that path. (Unfortunately Manning lost and definitely choked at the end of the game. BAD NEWS)

Montana had less seasons as a full season starter than Manning already has (only 11), but when it comes to a total package of performance and wins Montana is clearly the greatest QB of all time (well at least in this debate). His 4 Super Bowl wins and amazing 11 TDs and 0 INTs in those games prove how much of a big game player he was. His teams were definitely loaded, but he saw almost no drop off in the Postseason.

So with all that said I would rank the last 6 great QBs like this…

6. Marino

5. Favre

4. Elway

3. Manning

2. Brady

1. Montana

I admit I struggled with Manning and Brady and I am a huge homer. But Brady’s first 8 seasons are truly remarkable especially when you look at stats like TD/INT ratio and Winning % difference. Take that with Manning’s career postseason struggles and I went with Brady by a hair. I would love to get your opinions and please do not reference any QBs who came before the 1980s.

NFL Draft Prospect

Eric Berry Safety Tennessee

Will he be any good?

One of my favorite prospects, by all reports he is the next Ed Reed.

And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows

Alright folks, sorry for my recent absence, not that any of you really noticed. In recent personal news I am unclear of the future of this blog as I will be taking a new job at ESPN. No, they had no knowledge of my blog. I am going to be entering their Production Assistant Trainee Program. From what I have gathered I will help cut highlights and work backstage. It is a great opportunity and I am excited to take it. But I will blog as often as possible until I start and we’ll see if I can continue to blog while I work. Nonetheless today will be a quicker post but this week is the Super Bowl so there is definitely a lot to talk about. So what should we all expect from me this week???

Today: Personal Stuff (first paragraph). Pro-Bowl Recap, Senior Bowl Thoughts

Tuesday: LOST Season Premiere so no post

Wednesday: QB Breakdown…who is the greatest of the Modern Era?

Thursday: Prep the game preview which will be posted Friday

Friday: Post the game preview which I did yesterday

Saturday: Nothing

Sunday: Nothing

So there you have it, I mixed in my personal schedule, the première of LOST, and what I actually might be writing. Each day I post will also include an NFL Draft Prospect (today I  will feature a lot of prospects in the Senior Bowl section). So let’s get to it…

Pro Bowl Recap

I really enjoy when football writers try to suddenly make a lot of jokes in their column when they are writing about the Pro Bowl. We all know it’s not a serious game, but if you do not usually write with humor I would recommend you keep it that way. Just look at how big a mess this blog has been. As for the actual game it looked more like a kid playing Madden on Pro (that is the easiest mode). That would explain why David Garrard was able to play well. It is a sad day when a guy like Garrard and even Vince Young get to play in a so-called All-Star game. All week we heard the jokes that JaMarcus Russell is likely to be asked to play if someone else bowed out. All 3 of the AFC QBs had to be replaced with alternates (and actually an alternate was replaced as well), which doesn’t exactly scream must see game.

To the Pro Bowl’s defense (not the “defense” like that side of the ball, there is none of that in the Pro Bowl) football is the hardest game to try and get people to play seriously on an All Star level. The game is so violent that injuries are more the norm than the exception.

I was happy to see Brandon Meriweather was in mid-season form…

Check out the second TD for Jackson. Meriweather got his “T-Rex” arms going as he came up short on a dive for the tackle. He has his silver Patriots helmet on, Predator dread locks sticking out, and no reason to ever be a Pro Bowler. For those who do not know what I mean by Predator hair I am referencing the movie Predator, with alien creatures who look like this…

I would definitely rather have him in my secondary than Meriweather

In the end the AFC won and Matt Schaub fittingly won MVP (he comes up big in games that do not matter). Next year the game moves back to Hawaii, and still no one will care.

Senior Bowl

Tim Tebow, Tim Tebow, Tim Tebow. That was pretty much the highlight of the Senior Bowl. Not necessarily in a good way either. Tebow struggled to adjust to taking snaps under center and playing in a pro-style offense. It is widely known that his slow/long release is a big problem, and he did little to change that opinion. But we all know his intangibles, and leadership ability. Also he seems to be a fan of the movie Varsity Blues…

Which this youtube clip points out came from the movie…

I tend to be a fan of Ed Reed’s speech, you gotta give credit to a guy when he is hurt dog…

Back to the Senior Bowl…Tebow struggled, but as he said it only takes one team to believe in him not every team. I would predict he comes off the board in the 2nd round. Other players who made headlines this week (good and bad)…

Dexter McCluster

RB/WR Ole Miss

Only 5’8″ 165 pounds but the kid can fly. He is the Darren Sproles mold, and although he is small he looks like he will be a 2nd or 3rd round pick. He had a big week, and could be a 10-15 touches  a game  big play threat guy in the NFL.

Terrence Cody

DT Alabama

The guy has struggled weight problems his entire career, but showing up weighing 370 is bad news. He is the immovable object, too bad he can’t move himself either…

Some even said he looked worse than Andre Smith last year. You might remember Andre from this video (Andre runs shirtless at the 44 second mark)…

Put your shirt on big fella

Myron Rolle

S Florida State

He took a year off from football when he accepted the Rhode Scholarship. We know the kid is smart, but people wondered if he could play. He apparently had a good week, but his 40 time at the combine is going to be a huge factor in where he gets drafted. He might time slowly.

LeGarrette Blount

RB Oregon

The infamous Blount is best known for his tirade after his teams opening loss this season. But by all reports he was the best RB at the Senior Bowl this week.

Brandon Graham

DE Michigan

He is a little undersized at only 6’1″ 263, but he was the best defender at Michigan this past year, and had a great week. Could he be in an Elvis Dumervil mold?

Mike Iupati

G Idaho

He is the top rated guard in the draft and did nothing to change that moniker. Look for him to be a late first round pick, and a starter in the NFL right away.

Alright that is all I got for today. I know other players had a good week at the Senior Bowl but I do not have time to hit on every name. I will try and get to them in the coming weeks. Come back Wednesday for a QB comparison you have to see.

And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows

Before I begin the AFC Preview I want to rant on something:

Charles Woodson won DPOY over the weekend. I understand that he made “big plays” on defense. Having 3 defensive TDs and 9 INTs are great stats. But defense is more than those impact plays. Look at the two biggest games Woodson has played in the last 5 weeks. The Steelers and Cardinals absolutely destroyed Woodson and his amazing defense. Let’s take a look at which WR Woodson was “covering”…

Hines Ward: 7 receptions, 126 yards

Mike Wallace: 2 receptions, 79 yards, 2 TDs

Santonio Holmes: 3 receptions, 77 yards

Steve Breaston: 7 receptions, 125 Yards, 1 TD

Larry Fitzgerald: 6 receptions 82 yards, 2 TDs

Early Doucet: 6 receptions, 77 yards 2 TDs

Basically it didn’t matter who you pick, at a minimum he let up 77 yards, and I find it hard to believe he wasn’t the man primarily responsible for Larry Fitz last weekend.

An interesting stat to look at is from the site footballoutsiders.com, it ranks team defenses based on yards given up to #1 WRs per game. Number 1 in that stat is no surprise the Jets, allowing only 29.4 yards per game. The number 2 team in the league is the Chargers allowing 46 yards per game. The difference between the Jets and Chargers is 16.6 yards per game. If that same difference is applied to the Chargers it would encompass 12 more teams. What I mean by that is that 12 teams are within 16.6 yards of the Chargers defense. The gap between 1 and 2 is the equivalent to the gap between 2 and 14. Think about how great that difference is for the Jets. The Jets are far and ahead better than the next best team. And why is that?

Darrelle Revis

Revis has less INTs than Woodson, only 6 to Woodson’s 9. He only has 1 defensive TD, and Woodson has 3. But when it comes to the total package Revis is head and shoulders better than Woodson. I think I have only seen Revis get beat once really all season. Ted Ginn Jr. on a fly pattern (and that guy is as fast as they come in the league)…

Revis has shut down every top WR he has played this year. I just noted how Woodson had his two worst games in the two biggest games of the season. Revis is still going strong and the Jets defense as a team has allowed a league best 8 passing TDs. The Packers are 4th WORST in the league allowing 29 passing TDs. The only stat in Woodson’s favor is his “big plays” but I would take 3 less INTs and 2 less defensive TDs for Revis any day of the week.

Woodson had a strong season, but come on!. Revis week in a week out was unbelievable. People got distracted by Woodson’s “big plays” but they are missing Revis and just how great he was this season.

Let’s get right into the Jets game…

Jets at Chargers

This is an amazingly interesting match-up. The Chargers bolster one of the best passing attacks in the league. The Jets have the best passing defense in the league. The Chargers have struggled to stop run on defense, the Jets are the best running team in the league. If this was a puzzle the Jets would seem to have all the right pieces.

Offensively the Chargers have been totally inept when it comes to rushing the ball. They average 3.3 yards per carry which is worst in the league. LT should do less of this…

And try being a great RB again. All this guy seems to do is run his mouth and not perform these days. There was a time when he was the best RB in the league hands down. He has had a season of over 100 receptions. He once set a record for TDs in a season. But now he is a shell of his old self. It is kind of sad too because he almost seems in denial at this point.

Some people might point out his TD numbers this year…he was 5th in the league with 12 rushing TDs. Not bad? But if you read yesterday’s column you will know that he was second in the league with touches inside the 5 yard line (29 total). The Chargers were padding his stats. If you think I am kidding check this out…

LT 2009 Rushing TD Breakdown:

Total Rushing TDs: 12

Rushing TDs of 5 yards or less: 9

1 Yard Rushing TDs: 6

That’s right…9 of his 12 TDs came from within 5 yards, 6 of those 9 were 1 yard TD runs. His 3 TDs from outside 5 yards were for 6 yards, 10 yards, and 20 yards. That is unreal. This guy would be NOTHING without goal-line carries.

With that said the Chargers offense is all about Phillip Rivers and the tallest passing attack in the league…

Vincent Jackson 6’5”

Malcolm Floyd 6’5”

Kassim Osgood 6’5”

Antonio Gates 6’5”

Legedu Naanee 6’2”

I obviously expect Revis to take Jackson out of the game. But the Jets are going to have issues with Floyd and Gates, especially with Gates. I think back to the second meeting between the Jets and Pats. The Jets shut down Moss, but could not hold down Welker. Welker and Gates are far from the same looking player, but both excel at short “read” routes. Gates has played extremely well down the stretch, and will be a huge factor this game (he always is, but give me a break)

I want to mention how I think Rivers is the 3rd best QB in the league. Manning is playing the best. I would still take Brady (half hope/half bias/half history) number 2 and Pre-Injury Brady would be number 1. I think Rivers is next. He throws like a girl…

But he always seems to play big when it matters. No one can question his toughness either. He played with a torn MCL or something a couple years back. He is my third choice, and if Brady never recovers and you told me I had to pick a QB for the next decade (10 years), I would take him number 1 (Manning is 34 years old).

The Chargers defense misses Jamal Williams at DT; he was their “Vince Wilfork.” He was able to take up two blockers and to keep the MLBs free to make plays. A healthy Merriman helps their pass rush, but since the steroids and the Tila Tequila incident he has not been as good as he once was. Shaun Phillips on the other end is a good rush LB.

The Chargers secondary is hit or miss in general. They have players people like…Eric Weddle, Antonio Cromartie, Quentin Jammer, and Antoine Cason. All guys I like, at least in name. But who really knows what you will get from game to game with these guys. Sanchez only passed 15 times last week, so they might not be tested a lot, but they better be ready to not only make plays in the passing game, but tackle tough RBs.

Sanchez played an outstanding game last weekend, a true surprise for a rookie. He deserves all the credit. If I were him I would show Braylon Edwards the movie The Replacements. Edwards needs some stick-em…

The title says Ted Ginn, but Edwards can’t even catch warm up passes…

The Jets feature one of the best O-Lines in the league. Their rushing attack leads the NFL, and Shonn Greene looked really good last week. Thomas Jones also had a huge season. This run game has two bulldozers. Usually you see those “thunder and lightning” rushing attacks. This one just hits you in the mouth over and over again. Shonn Greene also brings to light a new spelling for the name Shonn. Options include, but are not limited to…

Shonn

Sean

Shawn

Chone

Shone

Xi’an

With that said I think I am going to call him Xi’an Greene from now on. Xi’an was the best RB in college football a season ago but fell to the third round. The Jets look to have found themselves a really good young player. Reports are the Jets might even like Xi’an more than Jones. Look for Xi’an to get a lot of carries this weekend.

Defensively the Jets are the best in the league, in a number of categories. They have to have a huge game this weekend to continue to cover for a limited offense. Rex Ryan has this defense hungry. This could be because he has been eating all their food (come on, I had to) or more likely because he likes to play a super aggressive style. I am interested to see if the Chargers O-Line can deal with multiple blitzes. Rivers is tough, we know that, let’s see him stand in their hit after hit.

Yesterday I ranked the Jets the last team “allowed” to win the Super Bowl. I like the Chargers team a lot but Norv Turner is such a choke artist as a coach. For some reason this has become a very difficult game to pick. On the other side Rex Ryan put forth a great coaching job last week. One of those put your players in the right position to make plays performances (underrated, a lot of coaches do not to that). But no team played better at theend the season than the Chargers, so I go with them. But if Xi’an runs wild the Jets could win this one.

Official Pick: Chargers

Top Match-up

Antonio Gates vs. Kerry Rhodes/Bart Scott

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Ravens at Colts

The Ravens last weekend took the injured horse out behind the shed and put it out of its misery. As a Pats fan part of me is thankful. This Ravens played close games against tough teams all season. They never seemed able to put it all together. Even against the Pats last weekend Joe Flacco’s play has to raise some question marks. Flacco looked awful last game. He went 4/10 for 34 yards and 1 INT. Lucky for him the Pats didn’t show up, and the Ravens have one of the best RBs in the league. Flacco is going to have to make a play at some point. The question is: can he?

Speaking of that rushing attack, how can you not like Ray Rice? He runs hard, he is quick, and he falls forward, and can take any play the distance. He is so low to the ground and does an unbelievable job of keeping his balance. When he gets hit he often puts one hand down and gets in like a 3-point stance and keeps himself up. Watch this play…start at the 1:20 mark…

The Ravens feature the right rushing attack to take at a fast Colts defense. With Rice, McGahee, and McClain they have a mix of power and speed. In Rice’s case he has both and that is the best way to attack the Colts.

The Ravens also feature one of the best tackle duos in the league, Jared Gaither and Michael Oher. Quick tangent on Oher…How does he feel having been portrayed in such a negative light in both print and film? All the credit in the world for coming from a horrible situation and making it, but if I were him I would want to keep some privacy in my life.

Nonetheless, these two will go head to head with the best pass rush duo in the league. Freeney and Mathis can beat anyone and if they were on separate teams they would both be doubled. Instead opponents have to pick their poison. The fact that they play together makes it increasingly impossible to keep them off your QB all game. Skip the first minute…

If Flacco is really hurt they are going to have to do a great job keeping him clean, or it could be a long day.

The Colts offense is going to enter this game as a true mystery. The Colts have not played a full game in 4 weeks. The Ravens defense is playing fast and hard. Last week Ray Lewis seemed to know Brady’s line calls, it will be interesting to see if he can best Manning as well. Manning throughout his career has excelled at changing his offenses play call to fit what the defense is giving him. In fact in Madden they even added him doing these ridiculous hand motions that annoy the shit out of me. I know the game wants to be real but when you play Manning he takes the entire play clock. Not a big deal in the real world, but most people play 5 minute quarters…just snap the damn ball already!

In their first match-up this season the Colts pulled out a tight 17-15 game. Manning had 2 INTs. Their offense never really got it going. Dallas Clark did have his ridiculous face catch…

Clark has been the best TE this season. He is more of a slot WR, sort of a bigger Wes Welker, except with two good knees (I hate my life). I do not think Lewis will be covering him exclusively, but even with all his greatness Lewis has definitely lost a step. Ed Reed will likely be paying close attention to Clark as well.

Do not expect Curtis Painter to make a cameo in this game, but Manning and the offense is going to have to play well. The Ravens seem to be getting healthy, and have always been able to stop the run. They have the best DT in the league in my opinion. Haloti Ngata is quick, agile, and HUGE. He can stop the run and get to the passer. Oh yeah, and he can drop into short coverage sometimes. Basically I would not want to see him in an alley late at night…

That means that Manning will have to pass, not that he is averse to such action. In fact the Colts run game has been relatively ineffective all season. The Colts biggest advantage will be on the outside with the WR/CB match-ups. No one can really cover Reggie Wayne, and Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have had outstanding seasons for young players. If the Ravens cannot come out on top with single coverage on Garcon and Collie then expect a big game by Manning.

I am really back and forth on this game. Before I wrote this blog I was going to take the Ravens. About 4 paragraphs ago I was going to take the Colts. Now I am undecided. Ravens are playing with momentum; the Colts have done nothing for weeks. The Colts have the best QB in the game and are at home; the Ravens have a QB who is hurt and playing as poorly as any QB left. This is where I invoke my I HATE THE COLTS clause …

Official Pick: Ravens

By the way…why would you ever listen to me on picks? I ranked the Jets and Colts the two teams not allowed to win it all, so I have them losing this week. Must be random.

Top Match-Up

Dallas Clark vs. Ray Lewis/Ed Reed

vs.

NFL Draft Prospect

Jonathan Dwyer RB Georgia Tech

Will he be any good?

He was the ACC player of the year as sophomore. He had another outstanding season last year as a junior. G-Tech runs the triple option which creates a lot of misdirection but it also is an offense that is basically all about the run. The other team knows its coming and they have not been able to stop him. He won’t go especially high in the draft, but expect him to be very good, maybe even great.

And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows

Now that the Patriots are out of the Playoffs I have made my rankings for “Who can win the Super Bowl with out me hurting myself.” Here is a quick run down for how I stand…

1. Dallas…I like Romo, Austin, Ware, etc.
2. Saints…good for team and city
3. Cardinals…one of those doesn’t hurt me situations
4. Ravens…first AFC squad, love Ed Reed and respect Rice and Lewis
5. Vikings…hate Favre but not a direct Pats rival
6. Chargers…I despise LT
7. Colts…Manning winning another Super Bowl could cause me serious damage
8. Jets…I’d chose a slow painful death over this

Basically the top 5 are fine to me. The Chargers are painful, but Colts and Jets would be real issues for me. Thus my analysis/predictions will undoubtedly take these rankings into account; I can’t pick a team I don’t want to win, that would be unbiased.

Even though I did not necessarily come out and say it in every game preview last week, I went 2-2 last weekend. I lost on the Pats and the Bengals. I will add an official prediction to this week’s games. Once again I will start in the NFC…

Cardinals at Saints

If I gave you an over/under of 65.5 combined points what would you take in this game?

The Saints have played 4 games with a combined score of over 65 this season. The league has only seen 12 such games this regular season (13 if you include last Sunday’s). The Cardinals defense is likely to qualify as “suspect” after last weekend. Not as “suspect” as Woodson winning DPOY, but I will rant on that tomorrow. Here is a 7+ min clip of the Cards/Pack game from last Sunday. Normal highlights are a minute or two, but when two teams combine for 96 points it takes a little bit longer…

As for the Saints they have been the old Saints (that means bad) for a couple weeks now. Ever since their destruction of the artist formerly known as the New England Patriots the Saints have not been right. They won one of the great fluke games ever partly because of this play…

Then had a close game with a broken down Falcons team, and followed that up by 3 straight loses to end the season. The Saints started the season 13-0 and ended it 0-3. The end of the season makes me question one individual…Drew Brees. I mentioned it before on this site; Brees does not have a huge playoff history. Many clumped him in with Manning and Pre-Injury Brady, but he probably compares better to a healthy Matt Schaub. Yea I just said that. Both have put up big time stats, but not much substance. Remember Brees has a 1-2 career playoff record and in 8 seasons as a starter has only made the playoffs 3 times (this year being the third). Obviously he has more regular season “comebacks” than Schaub, and I think he is a lot better, but until now he basically has been a big time stats/fantasy guy.

Brees is reportedly working like a mad-man, waking up at 3am or something. I don’t know what to tell you, ESPN had Rachel Nichols report it so it has to be true. The bottom-line for the Saints offense is that it has been broken for a couple weeks now and needs Brees to step it up if they want to beat a dangerous Cards team.

In my opinion an X-Factor in this game for the Saints offense is Reggie Bush. I have ripped on him multiple times, but calling someone a bust is only relative to their draft position. A number 2 overall pick RB/WR needs to get 25 touches a game and be a game-changer. Bush has struggled to be an every down back.  However he has immense value when he gets 10-15 touches in space with room to make people miss. Do not waste your time running him blindly into the line of scrimmage. But when he gets the ball in space or on misdirection plays he almost always makes a difference. Think plays like this…

Defensively the Saints thrive on having a lead and making the opponent come back. They are a scoring threat on any turnover. When they lost to the Cowboys Romo played a nearly flawless game and the Cowboys rushing attack gouged the Saints run defense. Beanie Wells has come on strong at the end of the season and has given the Cards offense a rushing attack they have lacked in recent years. The Cards have to be careful about fumbles though. Beanie Wells and his running mate Tim Hightower have a combined 9 fumbles this season. That is more than any other RB duo in the league. If the Cards turn the ball over the Saints are going to make plays out of it.

The Saints success will come down to one thing…Can they find their “mojo.” Early in the season they were flying high, but the Cowboys took away their “mojo” and since then they have not been right. Think of it like this…(Dr. Evil = Cowboys and Saints = Austin Powers)…

13 games into the season the Saints were undefeated and unbeatable at home. Since the Cowboys stole their “mojo” they have lost their last 2 home games (and last road game for that matter). The Superdome was supposedly one of the last few venues that created a home-field advantage. Lets see if Brees and the Saints can get back their “mojo” before it is too late…

Kurt Warner is coming off one of the greatest post-season performances of all time. He was 29 of 33 for 379 yards and 5 TDs. I would say if he does that again this weekend the Cards are guaranteed to win, but it took a fluke defensive TD for the Cards to win last Sunday’s game. Warner will need to keep up the top level performance if he wants to give the Cards a chance.

There is a chance that Anquan Boldin will be back this week. To be honest I do not think it makes too much of a difference. The Cards have a dangerous offense with or without him. Boldin helps but, they can win without him, and having him guarantees nothing.

The Cards defense has talked big about how they would rather face Brees than Rodgers. I have no clue why people talk trash like this before games, especially a defense that just allowed 45 points at home. Regardless, they will get their wish this weekend. People have talked of the irony of the 96 point game being decided by a defensive TD, I have to admit it was a little strange. If the Cards defense cannot get it together there is no way they can keep winning like this.

The Cards are most easily defined by this photo…

That is Brenda Warner, wife of Kurt Warner. On the right you see her new look, yup that’s the current Mrs. Warner. On the left you see Mrs. Warner from when Kurt first broke onto the scene, early 2000s. The Cards basically vacillate between the two looks. When they are playing well they are the hot new Mrs. Warner. When they are playing poorly they are the old gray Mrs. Warner. Which Mrs. Warner will show up this weekend?

My guess is that the Saints take this game. They are well rested with a city and following that wants/needs this win. I have questioned Brees but I expect a huge performance from him.

Official Pick: Saints

Top Match-Up:

Drew Brees vs. Kurt Warner (it could turn into a 7 on 7 passing drill competition)

vs.

Cowboys at Vikings

Talk about two teams that were going in opposite directions at the end of the season. The Vikes turned into an enigma while the Cowboys finally hit their stride after years of lackluster late season performances. Let me start by breaking down some stuff for the Vikes.

I am throwing out their win against the Giants in week 17. The Giants played almost as poorly as the Pats did last weekend. The Vikes had a fantastic start to the season but it came mostly against some mediocre teams. They fell apart late and have really left a lot of questions about just how good they are.

Adrian Peterson has now reached overrated status. He is 5th in the league in rushing, but only had a 4.4 yards per carry average, which ranked him 24th in the league for those who qualified (over 100 carries). He leads the league in fumbles with 6. And although led the league in rushing TDs he also had the most touches from inside the 5 yard line of any RB in the league. He had 30 attempts inside the 5, LT had 29, and then Thomas Jones and MJD are the next closest with 20 each. Meaning outside that washed up joke that is LT he had at least 50% more touches of any RB inside the 5 yard line.

Lets assume that touches inside the 5 yard line are directly correlated to rushing TDs, which it clearly is not, but it is definitely a huge factor. Then if MJD had the same amount of touches inside the 5 yard line as Peterson did he would have had 5 more TDs than Peterson. In other words Peterson has not been quite as effective as we thought.

The Vikes offense is basically determined by its passing attack. To his credit Favre has not had his December swoon, but there are still a lot of issues out there. Percy Harvin has not been healthy as of late and the Vikes clearly miss the added dimension he brings to the offense. The good news is that Sidney Rice has come on to have a monster season and Visante Shiancoe is one of the biggest TEs in the league both statistically and physically (children shield your eyes)…

The Vikes biggest issues will be their defense and their offensive line. The O-line I will discuss later, but their defense has struggled against good passing teams and Antoine Winfield has been burnt consistently since returning from a foot injury. This is him getting beat, and badly, in the Bears game a couple weeks back…

The Vikes will need to rely on Jared Allen and friends to get a lot of pressure on Tony Romo. Expect Allen to get Cowboys LT Flozell Adams to false start a couple times as well as commit some dumb penalties. The guy is a tank…

But he has also proven to be a dirty player…

Look for the Cowboys to keep up a balanced offense. Miles Austin has helped this entire passing game. Couple Austin with Romo’s strong play and this passing offense is good enough to beat you on any down. The offense has also gotten a real boost from playmaker Felix Jones. Check out Jones’ TD last weekend…

If this guy can get in space (ala a Reggie Bush) he is liable to go the distance.

On defense the Cowboys secondary has been playing outstanding football. The fact that DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer have been so effective getting to the QB is a huge plus. Their defense reminds me of the Giants D from 2007 (they won the Super Bowl). They have a pretty good secondary, but their dominating pass rush makes their entire defense better. The Vikes have struggled big time on the O-line and will truly have their hands full with these two this weekend. Bryant McKinnie, the Vikes mammoth LT, was benched a couple weeks back against Julius Peppers. Ware is going to be in Favre’s face all game.

From the department of redundancy department…a lot of drama has been made of the drama between Favre and Childress. I do not expect that to be much of a factor. I think the Cowboys are a better team and on a roll. I think the Vikes are going in the wrong direction and have too many holes.

Official Prediction: Cowboys

Top Match-up:

Cowboys D-Line vs Vikes O-Line

vs.

NFL Draft Prospect

Arrelious Benn WR Illinois

Will he be good?

This guy (copyright Jon Gruden) is 6’2” 200lbs and an absolute beast of an athlete. He did not put up big numbers at Illinois, but they struggled to find consistency at the QB position. He is going to put up great numbers at the combine (think 40 time, bench press, and other measurables), but I have been giving you guys people I love so far on this site, and I think Benn will be a bust. He is an ultimate boom/bust pick. I question his route running, hands, and commitment. I would stay away from him until the 2^nd round at least.

And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows

For better or worse the Patriots season has now ended. In a backwards way if the Owners and Players do not agree to a new CBA this might be a good thing for the Pats (I will touch on this briefly later). The game however was not a good thing for the Pats or anyone who wants to believe in them in the long run. There has to be a lot of changes for this team to compete next year. I am going to just throw a quick run down of some important topics for the offseason, then I will discuss the CBA situation and why the Pats losing might be a good thing…

Coaching Staff

The Pats need to get new coaches. If you read this site then you know I despise Quarterback Coach and Offensive Play Caller Bill O’Brien. He cannot call the plays. He has no sense of the moment, does not allow for any sense of continuity. What kind of offense would you describe the Pats this year? Inconsistent comes to mind. That has not been the case since Brady came on board until now. O’Brien has to go. If I have to watch him call plays next year it is going to be worse for my health than if I spent an afternoon with the Monkey from the movie Outbreak.

WR Core

Randy Moss is NOT the problem on offense, but he is not as good as he once was. He is clearly getting older and might have lost a step. He did not have a 100 yard game since week 10 this season. He is on the last year of his contract next season. Hopefully he finds the motivation this off-season and comes back with a hellacious year. The guy has put in the work before…

Outside Moss the WR core needs an infusion of talent. Edleman looks like he can “replace” Welker to some extent but he does not look like an outside WR (he is more of a slot man).

There are options at WR with potential free agents…Antonio Bryant, Derrick Mason, and Kevin Walter are all free agents who might not require the Pats to break the bank. I love Welker, but do not get your hopes up that he will be healthy to play early next season.

The league is filled with young TEs who have talent, yet they all are on teams not named the Patriots. We might have to target yet another TE in the draft. Jermaine Gresham from Oklahoma comes to mind. I would be interested to see how far he falls. I will profile him today at the end of the column.

RB Direction

Make a RB decision. Maroney’s run in New England might be over. The RB by committee can work if you have a passing attack that sets records. People forget though that the Pats won their Super Bowls with top level rushing attacks, and when they switched to the passing offense they have not been able to win Super Bowls. It might not always be pretty, but heavy doses of Clock Killing Corey Dillon were a formula for success…

Defensive Overhaul

There is only one LB who should stay and that is Mayo. He needs to improve no doubt, but he has some skills and hopefully his injury was the reason he seemed to stagnate in his development this year. Guyton is a bit player who cannot shed a blocker to make a play in the running game. Our OLBs cannot rush the passer unless we are facing the Bills. Banta-Cain had a good season for what his skills are but he is a situational player at best. Adalius Thomas is going to be shown the door especially after all the drama he had this season. We need someone who puts fear into the offense on passing downs. A top notch pass rusher can cover up a questionable secondary.

And guess what…our secondary is terrible. Meriweather is so bad when it matters it makes me sick. Somehow he was named to the Pro-Bowl as a replacement. That just echoes why the Pro-Bowl is a meaningless event. Wilhite is one of the worst corners I have seen in this league. Bodden will likely leave in Free Agency. Springs was inactive for weeks mid-season for some unknown reason.

I am hoping that Butler develops and unlike the other guys I named. He has shown a lot of promise. Also Chung should be instilled into the defense so we can at least see what we got in him. He cannot be worse at the Safety position than the triumvirate of Meriweather/Sanders/McGowan.

Finally the team needs to make long term decisions along the defensive line. Will Wilfork be back? Should we retain Jarvis Green? Will Ron Brace develop into a viable DT or has his poor performance this season shown that he is a 2^nd Round bust? Maybe it will be easier to find a true DE who can rush the passer than it will be to find an OLB. Will that mean a switch to the 4-3?

Tom Brady

This issue is not something that can be addressed in the off-season by signing a new free agent or changing who calls the offensive plays. Brady had an off-year. He was recovering from an unbelievably debilitating injury, but he did not play well this season no matter how you slice it or what excuses you make. I do not know if Brady works as hard as he used to, and I will not assume he does or doesn’t. He might work harder. Whatever it is, Brady has to get back to the old Brady.

CBA Situation

Currently this is the “situation” if the Owners and the Players do not come to a new CBA (taken from Pat Kirwan’s article on NFL.com)…

The Final 8 Rule…

The rule will restrict the final eight teams in the playoffs from signing free agents. The final four teams shall not be permitted to negotiate and sign any unrestricted free agent to a player contract except for players who acquired their status by being cut or were on the final four team when their contract expired. Playoff teams five thru eight get a break to sign one player with a salary of $4,925,000 or more and any number of players with a first-year salary of no more than $3,275,000 and an annual increase of no more than 30 percent in the following years.

There is a mechanism to permit the final eight teams to sign an unrestricted free agent for each one of their own unrestricted free agents who sign with another club as long as they don’t spend more than what their own lost player received from his new club.

If the Pats had won yesterday they would have been restricted in who they were allowed to sign. By not being a member of the “Final 8” they will be able to sign more potential free agents.That is how they might have actually “won” yesterday. There are other weird rules that will be instituted restricting who is available, and furthermore the Pats have usually been very specific over who they spend money on. Samuel, Vinatieri, Vrabel, and Seymour were all either let go or traded due to money (as well as other issues).

Final Note

Are we overreacting to this weekends loss? Part of me says yes. The team was 10-6 and won the AFC East. But I watched every game and saw an incredibly flawed team. No team is perfect, but the Pats rode an easy home schedule and a lot of breaks to win 10 games. In the end we were not good enough and it showed.

People get blindsided by the fantastic record breaking season that the Pats had in 2007 and forget what got us to that point. No doubt Brady, if healthy, is a top QB not only in the league but of all time. But it was a balanced offense, with a hard-nosed tough defense that won us 3 Super Bowls in 4 years. Yes, the defensive rules have changed in support of a more open offensive style, but balance still pays dividends. Can the Pats put together a defense suited to play by these rules and still dominate over multiple seasons? How many new players do we have to bring in? Can the Pats find the balance on offense? There are a ton of questions out there, more than someone would expect for a 10-6 Divisional Champ which has Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. At least this season’s disappointment is over.

NFL Draft Prospect

Jermaine Gresham TE Oklahoma

Will he be good?

He came back this season even though he would  have been the first TE taken in last years draft. An injury before the season even started ended his college career. He decided to declare for the Draft this year even with no playing time logged this season. If healthy he is a beast and an absolute force from the TE position. He is 6’6” 260lbs and has great hands. His blocking leaves something to be desired, but I think he is going to be a stud in this league if he can overcome his injury. The injury could be a blessing in disguise for teams picking late, because he should drop lower than his talent dictates.

Back with Playoff previews later this week. Expect the NFC on Wednesday, and the AFC on Thursday.

And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows

While the NFC was wasting time with their 6 playoff teams already decided last weekend the AFC saw some big games, huge hits, key injuries, and the two teams who controlled their own destiny take control. I always find it interesting when someone “controls” their own destiny. Destiny is defined as a predetermined course of events. If someone controlled it they would know they were all set already. Furthermore if you controlled your own destiny why play hard at all? Ok never mind, stupid definitional arguments.

Looking at this weekends four match-ups I actually think that we have the two most intriguing match-ups in the AFC. I know the Cowboys/Eagles game has big game draw and the Cards/Packers game features two teams that could win it all but I think the AFC match-ups hold all the intrigue.

The Bengals have had more heartache this season than any team in a long time.

The Jets used a league best defense and rushing attack to cover up a rookie QB.

The Pats have caused me more pain than Ike Taylor caused Pat White…

The Ravens have the scariest man in the league, the best safety, and a big play threat.

I think the match-ups themselves also lead to great intrigue. All four teams are flawed, and yet many will argue that all four have a chance to make a run. The Bengals/Jets game matches two teams no one thought would be here, while the Pats/Ravens game matches two teams who probably expected more. Let’s break down each game more thoroughly than yesterdays post because I care more about the AFC…

Jets at Bengals

Why them first? So I can spend 5 pages on the Pats/Ravens and keep you reading. By you I mean all 5 of my readers. So let’s get to it…

The Bengals have been a mess lately. They defied the odds earlier this season when they were able to beat the Ravens and the Steelers twice. How unlikely is that to happen? I can’t really tell you because I am not wasting my time looking at the each season for those two teams but keep in mind the Browns and the Bengals are the only two teams in the last 10 or so years to be able to win 4 regular season games against the Steelers and Ravens, and do you really think they’ve done it before?

Carson Palmer is not Carson Palmer anymore folks and that has to scare Bengals fans. He had his lowest completion % of his career (not counting last season’s 4 games, he missed the rest due to injury). He also had his lowest TD and Yard totals since his rookie season. Not good signs. And we all remember the last time he was in the playoffs…

Honestly that has no relevance as to how he will play this postseason. But after being carted off the field after that hit he was unable to complete another pass the entire game.

The Bengals have relied on Cedric Benson rushing the ball, and stout defense to win games. They win their games close and don’t seem to have any blowouts. They have one of the best CB duos in the league with Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph. Both are former 1^st round picks who are now playing up to par.

The Bengals have been on an emotional roller-coaster all season. From the passing of Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer’s wife to Chris Henry’s fatal accident, this team has had to overcome more than just simple on field injuries. Many have pegged them the worst of the 12 play-off teams, but remember they played arguably the best team in the league (the Chargers) three weeks ago and came within a FG of winning the game on the road.

The Jets are all about the number 1 right now. Number 1 defense in the league. Number 1 rushing game in the league. Number 1 CB in the league. But what might be most important is they have a QB who is playing his 1st playoff game. SanCHEZ has not exactly taken the world by storm this season. He had a play sheet wrist band that resembled this…

Red meant play it safe, Yellow meant he could be more open, and Green meant he could take a risk. This reminds me of an episode of The Office where Michael Scott color codes his rolodex. Dwight steals the rolodex and goes to make a sale with one of the clients. After thinking he has done well Dwight looks down at a business card from the rolodex which has notes on it, one note says his current client has a gay son. This interaction ensues…

Dwight: Thank you, Mr. Schofield, for your time—much appreciated. Oh, (looks down to read the business card notes) and tell me, how’s your gay son?
Mr. Scofield: Excuse me? (awkward silence)
(cut to Michael’s talking head)
Michael: I color code all my info. I wrote “gay son” in green. Green means go. So I know to go ahead and shut up about it. Orange means, ‘orange you glad you didn’t bring it up?’ Most colors mean ‘don’t say it.’

I like Michael’s color coding better, but if I am a Jets fan I have to be scared to death with a QB who his own coach not only doesn’t trust but is incredibly public about his lack of trust. Sure, he is a rookie, but at least try to give off an aura of confidence.

If the Jets win this game it will be because of defense and a tough running game. The Jets and Bengals rank in the top 5 in rushing attempts per game. The Jets are number 1 by 82 attempts over the Panthers. Expect a smash mouth game. Revis will be matched-up with Ochocinco again this week. Ochocinco no showed last week battle, and I would not expect him to get the better of this match-up Saturday.

This game should be tight. Part of me screams ROOKIE QB ON THE ROAD. Part of me notes the Bengals have played some very mediocre ball as of late. I said the AFC has intriguing match-ups not necessarily the games I want to watch (I want to watch the Pats game, but this one looks painful). When I make a pick in a game I don’t let my biases play a part. With that said I HATE the Jets and that is the only reason I am picking against them.

Top Match-up:

Jet’s O-Line vs. Bengals Run Defense

vs.

Ravens at Patriots

Their week 4 game came down to the wire. Ray Lewis after the game had a fit over a penalty in that game, and former Patriot great Rodney Harrison called out Tom Brady on NBC…

But penalties are nothing new to the Ravens. The Ravens are one of the most penalized teams in the league, and always seem to have a penalty at the wrong time. If they cannot correct that problem they will not last long in the playoffs.

Their only consistent weapon on offense this season has been the electric Ray Rice. I mentioned him in the ‘Things We Love” posts. He is a dynamic back who is incredibly dangerous out of the backfield. That has to be great news for the Patriots whose Swiss Cheese defense has struggled to stop anyone with talent nearly all season.

The Ravens have struggled passing the ball though this season. Flacco seems to have taken a step back, or as I like to say he is being asked to do more, and isn’t quite capable of it yet. His playoff stats last year when the Ravens were able to make it to the AFC Championship game were abysmal. He completed 44% of his passes for 437 total yards, had 1 TD, and 3 INTS (all of which came in the Championship game). If he plays like that Sunday the Ravens are going to need a herculean effort from its defense.

Lucky for the Ravens that is not out of the realm of possibilities. Ray Lewis is not as fast as he once was, but like the famous saying goes…I’m not as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I’ll ever be. This game is going to be cold, and expect some bone jarring hits. He has been in the league since 1996 and is still playing at a Pro-Bowl level. He even has one of the great plays this season when he jumped the gap in week 2 against the Chargers…

That is a 4^th and 2, the biggest play of the game. He jumps the gap, play over, game over. I have been critical of Ray a lot, but I know how good he is. The guy is dangerous and keeps this defense emotionally charged. Behind Ray is the best safety in the game Ed Reed. I mention him a lot on this site and he is just an absolutely outstanding player. Watch this play, he breaks on the ball before the SNAP!…

He can take any turnover back to the house and change the game. Reed has been struggling with injuries as of late, but if he plays, injured or not, he is dangerous. On a final defensive note it will be interesting if Terrell Suggs and Jarrett Johnson can get pressure on Brady. Last game a strip sack was returned for a TD by the Ravens. That could be the difference in this game

Ok…hold your breath…time to talk Patriots…

All I can think about this week has been this play…

Welker was crying after the play. He knew it. It was painful to watch. It was sad to watch. I never felt so much for a player. Here is a quick snip from Patriots.com page on him…

Wesley Welker was born the son of Leland and Shelley Welker on May 1, 1981 in Oklahoma City, Okla … Attended Heritage Hall High School in Oklahoma City, where he played both running back and defensive back … Was named the Oklahoma Player of the Year as a senior by numerous media outlets … Was an all-state choice as a running back … In his career, rushed for 3,235 yards and 53 touchdowns on 495 attempts, while catching 174 passes for 2,551 yards and 27 scores … Also snared 22 interceptions and returned seven punts for touchdowns … Scored a total of 90 touchdowns in his prep career … Also served as a placekicker and hit a 57-yard field goal

Let me expand further…

He got few college scholarships, went to Texas Tech and received the nickname “The Natural.” He once again put up numbers across the board but would go undrafted. He then got cut by the Chargers in 2004. He almost got cut by the Dolphins in 2006, but had a great year. The Pats traded a 2nd and 7th round pick for him and people thought we were crazy. Since that time he has had 346 receptions. He made the Pro-Bowl this year. It is so sad to see a guy like this get hurt. He is a 5’9”, 190lbs slot WR who gets hit by LBs, Safeties, and CBs all game. He always gets up. Well he always got up. I really hope he can heal from this injury.

Ok, end of my emotional rant. It is understood that the Pats are going to miss Welker. Tony Massarotti argued in his blog that “If the Patriots were so reliant on him that his absence will now destroy their Super Bowl hopes – however slim they were – then they probably weren’t championship material to begin with… In a sport like football, a 5-foot-9-inch, 190-pound slot receiver should not be the difference between ultimate success and failure.” I actually could not disagree more.

Who decides which single positions dictate differences? I agree that our chances were not great. But why does the fact he is 5’9” or 190lbs matter when it comes to his relevance? Why does it matter that he was a slot receiver?  Think about it like this (I excluded QBs because that is obvious), could the following teams win it all without the following player…

Jets: Darrell Revis

Bengals: Chad Ochocinco

Packers: Charles Woodson

Cardinals: Larry Fitzgerald

Eagles: Desean Jackson

Cowboys: Jason Witten

Colts: Dallas Clark

Chargers: Antonio Gates

Vikings: Sidney Rice

Saints: Darren Sharper

In each case, some stronger than others, you would say that in all likelihood if that team lost that player they would not win the SuperBowl. Not to say they couldn’t, but it is unlikely. I listed CBs, WRs, TEs, and a Safety. Sometimes one guy can be the difference, even if he is not the QB. Even if he is 5’9″ and 190lbs.

Does that mean that I think the loss of Welker means the end of the Pats? I can’t tell you it looks good. I brought up the argument about Welker because I think he deserves to be considered among the most important players in the game. I do agree when Massarotti says this team has other problems. The loss of Welker likely puts them over the edge, especially in a game of inches (Copyright Al Pacino, Any Given Sunday). Being the huge homer I am I will still believe in this team and hope they can find a way. Last point on Welker…I believe if he was healthy, regardless of how flawed this team has been they could have legitimately won the SuperBowl, now I am not sure.

And let me tell you this team is incredibly flawed. They have no third WR, now no second WR. Call me stupid but I am not sold on Julian Edleman yet. I would love for him to be great, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The play calling has been abysmal all season. Defensively our LBs struggle in coverage and against fast RBs. And our pass defense reminds me of the following exchange from one of the great movies of all time Armageddon…

Oscar: Ok, Mr. Truman, let’s say that we actually do land on this. What’s it gonna be like up there?
Truman: 200 degrees in the sunlight, minus 200 in the shade, canyons of razor-sharp rock, unpredictable gravitational conditions, unexpected eruptions, things like that.
Oscar: Okay, so the scariest environment imaginable. Thanks. That’s all you gotta say, scariest environment imaginable.

But imagine the quote as something like this…

Oscar: Ok, Mr. Truman, let’s say that we actually have to pass defend. What’s it our pass defense like?
Truman: Incredibly inept on obvious passing downs, completely unable to rush the passer, defensive backs with “predator” hair who could be legally blind, unpredictable safety play, lots of big plays allowed, things like that.
Oscar: Okay, so the worst pass defense imaginable. Thanks. That’s all you gotta say, worst pass defense imaginable.

I love that movie. Trust me it’s a keeper. I even get a little teary eyed at parts. Not going to lie. But, the Patriots…I have just ripped them apart. So why hold onto the slim belief. Well this week is easy to talk myself into. Home playoff game, against an equally flawed Ravens team, that you already beat, no matter if it happened on a dropped pass or not, with Tom Brady at QB, and Bill Belichick at Head Coach. Yeah I am being a too biased, but the easiest way for a team to get motivated is to have no one believe in them, and right now no one believes in the Pats. I would say I am jinxing them, but I pick them to win and cover every week. Can’t in my heart go any other way.

Top Match-up:

Ray Rice vs. Jerod Mayo

vs.

Alright that is all for the preview…now it is time for today’s Draft Prospect…

Joe Haden CB Florida

Will he be good?

I absolutely love this guy. If I could put him in our secondary today I would. I think he is going to be a stud at the next level.

Enjoy this weekend’s playoffs…

And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows

They should call this weekend rematch weekend. Not only has every match-up happened at least once before this season, but three of the games occurred just last weekend. Both NFC games are rematches of last weekend and both were very big blowouts. How much weight should we put into this? Who knows, anyone that reads this site knows I blow at predictions. Nonetheless, let’s break down some key stuff for each NFC match-up.

Packers at Cardinals

So get this…for weeks I have told everyone how much I do not like this Packers team, how they are simply a product of a ridiculously easy schedule. I hate to turn on that opinion, so I won’t (just being stubborn). The Packers to me are still a flawed team that has played an easy schedule. I will give them credit for winning those games, and recently they have beaten bad teams “properly.” What do I mean by that? Well it’s one thing to beat the Seahawks, but they are one of the worst teams in the league, you should beat them by 20+. That is exactly what the Packers did, beating the Seahawks by 38 points two weeks ago.

Since their week 9 loss to the lowly Bucs the Packers have gone 7-1 with an average scoring differential of +15. That is pretty good. So why don’t I believe in them? I don’t trust their defense or their mental toughness. Aaron Rodgers has improved big time from the beginning of the season, but it is rare a QB who has never been in a big game to suddenly play well when it matters. Furthermore their running game can be suspect.

Defensively they have allowed some huge games to opponents. The Steelers game has to come to mind where they allowed Really Big Ben pass for 5 football fields (500+ yards). Charles Woodson will be matched up one on one with Larry Fitzgerald. I called Woodson a fraud candidate for DPOY and I think Fitz will win this head to head battle.

The Packers rank extremely high against the pass and the run but look at the teams they have played.

Bad at Passing and Rushing:

Bears (twice), Lions (twice), Rams, Seahawks, Browns, Bucs, Helmets

One Dimensional:

49ers, Ravens, Bengals (check Palmer’s stats, they are bad)

Their defensive statistics might be a little bit skewed if you ask me.

As for the Cardinals they lost to the Packers by 26 points last week and yet I like them in this game. They had nothing to play for last week and played like that (resting Warner and other starters). If this team has proven anything it is that they do not carry any momentum from week to week, whether that be good or bad momentum.

Here is a breakdown of their season:

Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Win, Win, Loss, Win, Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Win, Loss

Lots of back and forth in there, furthermore they did not build on either big wins or bad losses. This team defines unpredictable, but it almost in a predictable way. If they play bad one week, they play well the next. And if they play well expect a let down. Their two three game win streaks were against 6 non-playoff teams. So basically who knows with these guys.

Anquan Boldin looks like he is banged up, but when isn’t he at least a little hurt. Hurt or not he is dangerous in the game, and has some ridiculous hands…check out this footage from SuperBowl warm-ups last year…

Also how can you count this team out when they have Larry Fitz. The guy put together the greatest postseason ever by a WR last year. Does anyone doubt if he can do it again?

Top Match-up:

Fitzgerald vs. Woodson

vs.

Eagles at Cowboys

Unlike the Cardinals, the Eagles came into last weekends game with the Cowboys with something to play for. If they won they could have home field advantage in this game. Instead they got destroyed by the Cowboys. This is the second win for the Cowboys over the Eagles this year. I usually trumpet the opinion that beating a team three times in a season is extremely difficult to do. In recent history we have seen the Steelers beat the Ravens three times in a season and the Pats beat the Jets. So this might be an outdated theory.

Eagle fans though should not worry about playing on the road in this game. The last two years at least two road teams have won games on Wild Card weekend. Last season the Eagles were one of those teams beating the Vikings on the road. Then again the Vikings had Tarvaris Jackson as QB. Last year he had this wonderful INT to Asante Samuel and got jacked up in the process…

Ok so enough about a guy who wont play in this game. The Cowboys are playing arguably the best football of anyone (outside maybe the Chargers) right now. Remember when they couldn’t win in December? Those days are gone and they have three big wins in a row.

Their defense is led by one of the great underrated players in this league. DeMarcus Ware? Nope. Terrence Newman? Nope. The answer is Jay Ratliff. He is one of the most disruptive defensive tackles in the league today. He is both stout against the run and effective as a pass rusher. He is so athletic in fact that he can even drop into some coverage for really exotic blitzes. Look for his screaming celebration a lot this weekend…

If the Cowboys win it will be Tony Romo’s first career playoff win. His play in December has been outstanding. He helped carry my fantasy team to the finals, where I lost (let’s not talk about that). If Romo keeps up his recent work and the Cowboys lose it won’t be his fault.

Bottom-line is this game is going to come down to whether or not the Eagles can hit the big play. My buddy Doug asked me recently if I thought Desean Jackson was a top 5 WR in this league. Interesting question. We both agreed that he definitely has the stats to be in the argument. But his stats almost all come from the big play. I mentioned Larry Fitz, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Steve Smith, even Brandon Marshall as more complete WRs. Think of it like this. Wes Welker is the best slot/short yard WR in the game. Desean Jackson might be the best big play WR in the game. But neither has the combination of both to be considered the best of the best when it comes to complete WR. (although Welker was coming on strong until well…nevermind). I would not discount Jackson though, any man who has moves like this has to be paid attention to…

Top Match-up:

Desean Jackson vs. Cowboys Secondary (Terrence Newman)

vs.

That is all for the mini preview today. I want to leave everyone with something that might become a new part of each blog entry…With the NFL Draft only a couple months away I feel the need to enlighten some people on a prospect every time I post. Sometimes the prospect will be obvious other times he might be lesser known. I will probably just post a youtube highlight clip made by someone else, but I will also let you know if I “like” the guy, or think he is going to be a bust (meaning bad, no one knows where everyone will be drafted yet).

Up first the likely first pick in the draft. The guy has a name that is almost as difficult to say as it is to block him…

Ndamukong Suh

Will he be good?

He is an absolute beast, and manhandles people. No doubt I think he will be a stud, and it’s not like I’m alone, everyone says he will be the top pick.

Highlights:

That all today…

And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows

With one week left in the regular season there is really no need to go over every single game. Who cares about a 49ers vs. Lions game? No one, that’s who, not even their fans want to be stuck watching that game. But let’s stop wasting time. Time to look at some of the big headlines that have arisen thanks to Week 16…

The Patriots are Back and Better Than Ever?

Call me a skeptic but I will not be so quick to buy into this team. Since my injury I have been re-watching a ton of episodes of the tv show LOST online. By the way I highly recommend it, it is my favorite show. Well I just finished Season 1 and I am just beginning Season 2. The first episode of the season is entitled “Man of Science, Man of Faith.” What does this have to do with the Patriots? Well you see every homer, like myself, must balance these two beliefs. Science are the stats, the pure numbers. Faith is the hope and the belief that your team can defy the odds. The balance of science and faith is always most difficult with your own team.

The Patriots are coming off an absolute dismantling of the Jacksonville Jaguars. They are one of the few teams to have a strong Week 16, and since their loss to the  Dolphins 4 weeks ago their defense has allowed 10 points, 10 points, and 7 points. Lawrence Maroney fumbled away his potential big day on the goal line, but it did not stop the Pats who rolled behind hard running Sammy Morris and a super accurate Tom Brady. Defensively the Pats seem to be playing with a new swagger.If you look at this one game and think “here we come, back to the old Pats” you are definitely leaning towards being a Man of Faith.

A Man of Science will point out that the Jags had the worst point differential of any team with playoff aspirations. Going into last weekends game the 7-7 Jags had a point differential of -56 points. That means the Jags had been outscored by 56 points over 14 games, and yet somehow had won half their games. The Titans, who lost to the Pats by 59 points in week 6 had a point differential of -27 going into last weekend and they were also 7-7. The Jags should not represent a barometer game for anyone. A Man of Science will also point out that the Pats have not played well on the road (1-6 record) or against top teams (they lost their three biggest games: the Colts, Saints, and the 2nd Dolphins game that could have wrapped up the division much earlier).

What this really drawn out explanation is trying to say is that it is far too early to know what this win means for the Pats. They seem to be peaking at the right time. Being a diehard Pats fan I want to believe so bad that we can win it all, and to some extent I do. I will never pick against the Pats. But for all those “we’re back” Pats fans, listen to the Man of Science just a little bit before you crown us champions. I would love one more shot at this though…

Curtis Painter is the Man

Ladies and Gentleman, my new favorite player in the NFL…

Painter came into the game in relief of Peyton Manning and subsequently coughed up the lead to the Jets. The loss ends the Colts bid for a perfect regular season and makes me unbelievably happy. The last thing I wanted to see was the Colts go 19-0. That fear is gone now, although it does not help my nightmares about the Pats 18-1 season. I have to say Peyton Manning had a very questionable sideline demeanor after he was pulled, and although he said all the right things after the game, he was clearly upset with the decision.

In a strange way I think this loss hurts the Colts. Part of their mystique this year was the fact that they were undefeated. They had won so many games that were close. The fact that they kept coming out on top seemed like an obstacle that their opponents could not overcome, but now they have lost. It will be interesting to see how the Colts play the second week of the playoffs, because that will be the next time we see the real Colts again.

Upside Down NFC Playoffs

The Saints and Vikings are struggling big time. The Saints have lost their last two, at home no less. The Vikings have lost 3 of their last 4. On the other hand the Packers and the Cowboys both seem to be streaking into the Playoffs. The Packers have won 6 of their last 7 and the Cowboys have two straight December wins (including one @New Orleans) for the first time since God knows when. As the Cardinals showed us last year and the Giants the year before a team that gets hot late can make it to the SuperBowl, and even win it.

Wild Last Week for the AFC

The following are the playoff scenarios for the 2 Wild Card spots in the AFC. Check them out…

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore clinches a playoff spot with: BAL win

New York Jets

N.Y. Jets clinch a playoff spot with: NYJ win

Denver Broncos

Denver clinches a playoff spot with:

1. DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR

2. DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie OR

3. DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win OR

4. DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie OR

5. DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win OR

6. PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss OR

7. PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss OR

8. PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss OR

9. PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss OR

10. MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot with:

1. PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie OR

2. PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR

3. PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

Houston Texans

Houston clinches a playoff spot with:

1. HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR

2. HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie OR

3. HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot with:

1. JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss OR

2. JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss OR

3. JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss OR

4. JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss OR

5. JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

Miami Dolphins

Miami clinches a playoff spot with: MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

Nice and simple stuff, at least it should make for a last week that see some teams play hard.

That is all for today. Sorry for only a couple pictures and no videos, not much to be said right now.

And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows

Game(s) of the Week

Texans at Dolphins and Ravens at Steelers

Why these two games? There are definitely better games out there. The Titans vs Chargers on Friday night comes to mind. Even the Broncos vs Eagles has a better match-up, but these two games are going to be the most instrumental in determining the AFC Wild Cards (all four teams are competing for playoff spots, and none have clinched). Of the four teams in these two games only the Ravens would make the playoffs if the season ended today.

The Texans are the worst off of the 7-7 teams. They hold ZERO tiebreakers over the other 7-7 teams. Their game with the Dolphins is a defacto elimination game. The Dolphins play everybody tough. The Dolphins seem like a very easy team to stop but for some reason no team can do it. I know I am simplifying it but…I would press their WRs at the line (outside Ted Ginn Jr.) and load up to stop the run. Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess are not deep threat WRs.

The Texans look destined to finish their third straight 8-8 season. Gary Kubiak should put his house for sale now because there is no way he should be back as Head Coach of the Texans next season. This magazine cover is clearly incorrect…

The only thing the Texans have proven to me is that they are gutless. The Colts game they had a couple weeks back could have been a defining game for this team. Actually it was a defining game…the Texans are choke artists.

The Steelers are coming off a 500 yard passing game. Which to me is just astounding.Mini Rant…

A lot of people are talking up Charles Woodson as a potential Defensive Player of the Year candidate. How can a guy who’s team allowed 500 yards passing be considered a top contender for the DPOY? He isn’t a DT or a LB he is a CB, he covers the guys who get the yards. The Packers have allowed 27 passing TDs, which ranks them 3rd WORST in the league. Really Big Ben only had 3 passing TDs last game too, and even if they held him to ZERO passing TDs (completely unlikely) they would have allowed the 6th most passing TDs. Charles Woodson should not be the DPOY. And don’t tell me they simply “didn’t throw his way” that makes no sense. You don’t get 500 yards passing to one side of the field.

Okay so back to the Steelers…defensively they cannot stop anyone. Coach Mike Tomlin even tried an onside kick up by 2, with 4 min left in the game. Fortunately for Tomlin, Really Big Ben threw an absolutely perfect pass to Mike Wallace to win the game with no time left…

That pass was just amazing. I do not think if you gave Really Big Ben 10 more tries he could put it in the same place.

The Steelers defense has to be concerning especially when their own Head Coach calls them out in the post game interview. This is good news for the Ravens who come to town of back to back blowouts in which their offense had big games. But this game is in Pittsburgh. I heard that the Ravens petitioned the league to not have a night game at Pittsburgh this year. They have had Monday Nighters at Pittsburgh the last two years and lost both. Steelers fans are considered by many the best in the league. The Ravens control their own destiny and if they win out they are in. It will be interesting to see if they can step up this Sunday.

Game of the Weak

Raiders at the Helmets

I know these two teams are playing better but give me a break. The Mangina is even getting support from players on his team. What has the world come to? In a bit of good news I have found an even worse logo for the Helmets than a helmet…

I guess I should call them the Cleveland Elves. Maybe the Santa’s Little Helpers? Regardless the Helmets might be in worse shape than their logo options. I do not buy the Jerome Harrison “hype.” Much respect to him for having a record day, but he has been around for a while and this was his first real big game. They let up a lot of points to the hapless Chiefs and if not for Josh “the F’n Man” Cribbs they easily could have lost this game.

Cribbs returned two Kick Offs for TDs and is without a doubt the best special team player in the league. The funny thing is he doesn’t really pass the eye test as a quick and fast return man. He looks like a kinda big dude.

The Raiders have beaten some real good teams, and yet they are 5-9 because of a total lack of consistency and poor coaching. The Raiders have the potential to lay some real eggs, but when they show up they play tough defense, run the ball well, and have a surprising passing attack. I have to give props to JaMarcus Russell. Things were so bad for Russell that the back up to the back up was given a chance to start over him last week. Nonetheless he did lead a comeback win. For those with half filled glasses, drink up because that was an aberration. Russell is not a starter in this league.

2 Match-Ups 2 Watch

Reggie Nelson (Jaguars) vs. Brandon Meriweather (Patriots)

This is a match-up of two long-haired safeties who are playing some of the worst football I have ever seen. Both are former highly touted first round picks out of famous Florida based schools and both have looked just horrible the past few weeks. Nelson’s performance on Reggie Waynes 60+ yard TD catch that effectively won the game last week was embarrassing. Instead of tackling Wayne at the 10, he tried to “poke” the ball out. This is after he was in 2 deep zone and got beat deep. Check it out…

Meriweather was touted as an “all-pro” by SI’s Peter King in his mid year NFL report. That is a joke. This guy is consistently out of position and doesn’t even tackle anymore. It makes me sick watching him play.  Every time he headbutts Wilhite in some kind of “high-five” type celebration after one of them makes a tackle 10+ yards downfield I question gouging my eyes out.

Interesting Stat That Might Only Interest Me: Safeties usually cover TEs which brings up this nice stat about the Patriots…Ben Watson, the starting TE for the Patriots has been involved in 3.6% of the Pats offense. That ranks him 35th in the league. There are only 32 teams. Not that I had to tell you, but the Pats don’t pass to the TE at all.

Chris Johnson vs Charger Run Defense

This is the match-up that should decide this game. Johnson has been held under 100 yards in any of the Titans 7 wins this season. He also still has a shot at 2000 yards this season. He has two games to play and needs 270 yards, which is not outside the realm of possibilities with this guy. The Charger rush defense is on the mediocre to bad side ranking 12th worst in the league in yards allowed on the ground.

Interesting Stat That Might Only Interest Me: Chris Johnson leads all RBs with 7 rushing plays of over 40 yards. The Chargers are one of only 5 defenses that have not allowed a rushing play of over 40 yards. Chris Johnson also leads all RBs with rushing plays of over 20 yards, with 20. The Chargers have allowed only 7 rush plays of over 20 yards. If CJ is going to get over 100 yards he might need a lot of carries.

Other Notes:

• I have no clue why these networks can’t come up with new graphics and titles for their games such that they make sense. ESPN has Sunday NFL Countdown and airs it on Saturdays under the same name sometimes. The NFL Network called last Saturday’s Saints and Cowboys game a “Thursday Night Football Special” which makes no sense. Now this week they have Thursday Night Football on Christmas Day. Only problem is Christmas Day is Friday. Check out this graphic…

• I do not think I will be posting tomorrow, but I will try to get a post in updating all 5 of my fans of my weekend Fantasy match-up. I’m in the Finals playing against a team with amazing match-ups across the board, while my team looks like it is going to struggle. I know no one cares, but guess what…its my blog, my topics. Either way have a great holiday.

And remember if you don’t know…LutchKnows